The UK economy is set to flatline for the next six months, but it will "feel a lot" like a full-blown recession for millions.
That is the view of the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC), which thinks economic activity in the UK’s "fragile economy" will remain very weak throughout 2024 and 2025.
The BCC expects the next two quarters to flatline, leading to overall growth of 0.4% for the year.
This means the UK economy remains on course to avoid a technical recession, but growth is likely to remain so feeble that it will be hard to spot the difference, the BCC said.
It has also slashed its forecast for the next two years, as the economy is hit by rising inflation and high interest rates which squeeze disposable income and household spending.
The UK economy is expected to grow by just 0.3% in 2024 (down from a previous forecast of 0.6%), rising to 0.7% in 2025 (down from 1%).
The BCC said: "Consistently low economic growth of this nature is comparable to previous periods of economic shocks and recessions such as the oil crises of the 1970s and financial crash of 2008."