Comment of the Day
22nd August 2023
Video commentary for August 22nd 2023
A link to today's video commentary is posted in the Subscriber's Area.
Some of the topics discussed include: global banks review, Japan and European financial outperforming, China, Singapore, Australian financials under pressure, US banks rolling over, stocks susceptible to further mean reversion and significant impact from tightening credit likely to be evident in Q3.
Americans Have Almost Depleted Excess Savings, SF Fed Study Says
This article may be of interest. Here is a section:
“Our updated estimates suggest that households held less than $190 billion of aggregate excess savings by June,” San Francisco Fed researchers Hamza Abdelrahman and Luiz Oliveira said in a blog post published Wednesday on the bank’s website.
“There is considerable uncertainty in the outlook, but we estimate that these excess savings are likely to be depleted during the third quarter of 2023.”
Eoin Treacy's view
There are substantial events coming up in Q3 that are worth considering now. Depleted personal savings are one factor. The resumption of student loan payments for 40 million people is another. Continued upward pressure on rental costs are another. Yet, the Federal Reserve is still raising rates and does not expect to cut until well into 2024.
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Ex-JPMorgan Gold Traders Get Prison for 'Prolific Spoofing'
This article may be of interest. Here is a section:
Smith and Nowak “used their positions as some of the most powerful traders in the worldwide precious metals markets to engage in an egregious effort to manipulate prices for their benefit,” Acting US Assistant Attorney General Nicole M. Argentieri said in a statement, adding the Justice Department was committed to holding “accountable those who engage in fraud and manipulation that undermines the investing public’s trust in the integrity of our commodities markets.”
Eoin Treacy's view
Gold investors have been suspicious of the activities of institutional traders for decades. Rumours of active manipulation have been circulating for as long as I have been active in markets. The fact those rumours have been proved true further enhances the belief the system is rigged against the small investor. However, it is also worth considering that the volatility of the sector has not improved since spoofing cases have made headlines. Precious metals are still important and still trade in a very choppy manner.
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Thaksin Return From Exile Shows Thai Royalists Have Bigger Enemy
This article from Bloomberg may be of interest. Here is a section:
The awkward 11-party alliance emerged after both camps saw their interests align in the wake of a May election that produced a stunning win for Move Forward, a party that advocated changes to a law forbidding criticism of King Maha Vajiralongkorn and other top royals. The royalist parties wanted to keep Move Forward out of power, while Thaksin sought to strike a deal that would allow him to return to Thailand after 15 years of shuttling between Hong Kong, Singapore, Dubai, and London.
“Pheu Thai is the most powerful party to battle the emergence of Move Forward, after the electoral defeat of the conservative parties,” said Yuttaporn Issarachai, a political scientist at Sukhothai Thammathirat Open University. “As the saying goes, the enemy of my enemy is my friend.”
Thaksin’s return will mark a full-circle moment in Thailand’s political drama, which has seen a cycle of coups and deadly street protests erodes the nation’s competitiveness as a Southeast Asian manufacturing destination since the turn of the century. Foreign investors have dumped about $3.8 billion of Thai stocks this year, triggering an almost 9% slump in the main stock index to rank it among Asia’s worst performers.
Eoin Treacy's view
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Eoin's personal portfolio: commodity position closed August 22nd 2023
One of the questions subscribers ask most often is how to find details of my open trades. To make it easier I will simply repost the latest summary on a daily basis until there is a change.
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