Campari Group, the spirits company, is interested in acquiring or merging with a fellow alcoholic beverage producer, a value-generating move which analysts at Deutsche Bank believe hasn’t been accounted for in the group’s share price.
Claiming Campari has €30 billion in “equity-funded firepower”, the German bank believes the Aperol producer is interested in a deal with a spirits company which can offer premium brands which are exposed to the US and Asian markets.
Targets
Looking at the top 50 groups and cross-referencing them with nine pieces of criteria the group may consider, Deutsche Bank was able to find just three companies which it believes fit the bill and would be open to a deal.
Erdington's Macallan distillery Source Financial Times
Erdington Group, the privately owned producer of predominately whisky brands – most notably The Famous Grouse
Remy Cointreau brands Source: company website
Remy Cointreau, the listed French liquor group whose core brands include Remy Martin and Cointreau. Its market capitalisation, €7.5 billion, is a little over half that of Campari’s.
Hendrick's gin Source: Just Drinks
William Grant, the family-owned Scottish distiller which owns Glenfiddich whisky and Henrick’s gin.
Benefits
“An equity-funded acquisition could be up to 30% EPS accretive. Achieving a ROIC in excess of Campari's weighted average cost of capital (we assume 7.3%) requires strong growth, but Campari's track record for this is good,” Deutsche Bank analysts said.
“We believe Campari's current share price fails to reflect the company's sector-leading growth or the opportunity to create value with M&A.”
Deutsche Bank rates the group a 'buy' and targets a €13.70 share price. The stock traded close to 1% higher on Monday, having opened at around €11.65.