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The Markets
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The Markets
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The Markets
by Proactive
Proactive UK has moved.
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Financial Services

Fed head Powell's speech at Jackson Hole will set tone for markets

Economic data will also be coming fairly thick and fast in the week, including some clues about UK inflation's recent moves

Investors, traders and many more eyes will be on the normally sleepy resort town of Jackson Hole in Wyoming next week as the US Federal Reserve and other central bankers from around the world meet to discuss interest rates, inflation and other hot economic topics.

The Jackson Hole symposium, where representatives from the Bank of England are expected to attend, "will be the key highlight for investors" of the week, said Deutsche Bank.

With this year's theme entitled "Structural Shifts in the Global Economy", the symposium takes place after minutes from the last Fed meeting and resilient economic data sent Treasury yields to reach a 15-year high earlier this week, then rise higher again.

Deutsche analyst Galina Pozdnyakova said, "all eyes will be on how Fed officials, including chair Powell on Friday, react to the strength of the economy and potential inflation risks ahead of the September 20th meeting."

She noted that there will be another round of jobs and inflation data before that, and much more.

Given slowing inflation, more moderate labour cost developments and weaker hiring despite strong activity, economist Bert Colijn at ING said, he thinks Powell will "back the case for a September pause, but leave the door open to a further possible rate rise in either November or December depending on how the incoming information pans out".

Some investors will hang on every word that comes out of the gathering, said analysts at AJ Bell, "in the view that central bankers remain masters of the universe, able to control inflation and maintain both economic growth and financial market stability through their deft use of interest rates and, sometimes, less orthodox tools such as quantitative easing (or even quantitative tightening) and yield curve control.

"Others will view the event as nothing more than a meeting of prolix windbags who have never correctly called a recession in their lives, left monetary policy too loose for too long and made a mess of their call that inflation would prove ‘transitory’."

Even so, markets will almost certainly move based on hints on the trajectory of rates, inflation, the economy and anything else the central banking cohort mentions.

Other macroeconomic data this week

The economic indicators come relatively thick and fast next week.

Investors will focus on the global flash purchasing managers index (PMI) survey prints for the UK, US and other major economies, along with US durable goods orders and other sentiment indicators across Europe.

Flash PMIs will see US in focus as growth data continues to surprise on the upside, said Pozdnyakova, while economists at the bank see durable goods slowing to -0.5% month-on-month in July after a 4.6% advance in June.

For the UK, the PMIs will be examined for clues about inflation easing and wages rising.

ING's economists see the flash surveys highlighting "mounting stagnation in the service sector, coupled with ongoing problems in manufacturing", with the Bank of England most interested in whether the services survey points to improvements in inflation.

Also big news on inflation in the UK will be the new energy price cap, where another cut is expected to be announced by Ofgem on Friday.

In Asia, notable releases include the Tokyo CPI in Japan and loan rates and bank earnings in China.

With China's slowdown in focus, Baidu on Tuesday, Meituan on Thursday and a number of notable Chinese banks will be in focus.

In Europe, there will be several releases in Germany next week, including the details on Q2 GDP and the Ifo survey on Friday as well as the PPI on Monday. French retail sales come on Tuesday and business confidence on Thursday, as well as Eurozone consumer confidence on Wednesday.

In geopolitics, the BRICS summit running in Johannesburg on August 22-24 is a highlight, with China's President Xi is expected to meet South Africa's Cyril Ramaphosa.

Over in Japan, the Tokyo CPI will be among next week's key releases following today's nationwide measure, with the gauge seen easing to 2.9% for core inflation from 3.0%.

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