Moderna said it expects up to $4 billion in sales of its COVID-19 shots to the private market during 2023, depending on U.S. vaccination rates.
With the release of its second quarter financial results, the company forecast total COVID-19 vaccine sales of $6 billion to $8 billion for 2023, with $4 billion coming from government contracts and $2 billion to $4 billion from commercial contracts in the United States as well as other markets such as Japan and the European Union.
“The U.S. commercial contracts are a sizeable portion of additional new sales expected in the second half of the year,” Moderna chief commercial officer Arpa Garay told investors on the company’s 2Q earnings call.
The company had originally expected about $5 billion in government contracts, with $1 billion now deferred to 2024.
It expects a sales split of 30% in the third quarter and 70% in the fourth quarter.
Total vaccine sales in the year to date are $2.1 billion, with $293 million in sales achieved during 2Q – a 93.5% drop from the year-ago quarter.
Based on data from Australia, which can inform potential vaccination uptake in the US and prior year comparisons, the company expects US market volumes for the fall of 2023 in the range of 50 million to 100 million, supporting its US sales expectations for the second half of the year.
Moderna CFO Jamie Mock commented: “We continue to expect 2023 to be a transitional year as we move from a pandemic to an endemic commercial market with significant seasonality.”
Moderna shares traded modestly higher following its 2Q results, up 0.3% at US$110.50 in the early afternoon on Thursday.
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