Skip to main content
The Markets by Proactive
Go to Proactive UK
Proactive UK has moved. Proactive’s coverage of London’s small caps continues on proactiveinvestors.com Go there →
Advertisement
The Markets
by Proactive
Proactive UK has moved.
Coverage of London’s small caps continues on proactiveinvestors.com
Go to Proactive UK
The Markets
by Proactive
Proactive UK has moved.
Small-cap coverage continues on .com
Go to Proactive UK
Advertisement
The Markets
by Proactive
Proactive UK has moved.
Small-cap coverage continues on .com
Go to Proactive UK

Financial Services

Bank of England still may hike interest rate to 5.5% despite inflation easing

The Bank of England is widely expected to raise interest rates again at the monetary policy committee (MPC) meeting on Thursday and there is some disagreement about the likely size of the hike.

Alongside the rate decision the MPC will also publish its updated economic report and forecasts for coming months.

With the inflation having softened last month, with consumer price inflation easing to 7.9% from 8.7%, previous expectations that the MPC could deliver a second consecutive half-point raise from the current 5.0% have been questioned.

As this decline in CPI was larger than expected, market expectations are now split roughly 50/50 between a hike of 50 and 25 basis points At the 3 August meeting.

Economist Anna Titareva at UBS are among those who still expect a raise to 5.5%, though she said she were not totally confident.

Titareva cited three reasons why the MPC might repeat its 50bps trick: that inflation for the past quarter was still higher than the Bank's forecasts, that jobs data has been mixed and is "not yet showing sufficient improvement to significantly ease the MPC's concerns about inflation persistence" and that front-load the hikes gives the option to pause in September if the data were to improve.

"Overall, we expect the vote to be a close call between 50bp and 25bp with no major changes to the forward guidance, thus leaving the door open for further tightening, if needed."

Even though it is likely to raise the base rate, Laith Khalaf, head of investment analysis at AJ Bell, said the Bank "may be able to pour some balm on the mortgage market by providing some soothing rhetoric that offers a chink of light at the end of the tunnel".

This is because fixed mortgage rates are based on market forecasts of future interest rates, and so can fall even while the main bank rate is still going up.

The market is currently expecting interest rates to top out at 5.75% or 6% by the end of the year, so has already pared back its bets from the height of inflationary panic when rates north of 6% were envisaged.

"The Bank is still walking a tightrope though, as it tries to tame inflation without breaking the housing market."

He added that the MPC forecasts will act as a guideline for the market about whether current interest rate pricing is on the money, depending on whether inflation remains above or falls significantly below 2% on a three year horizon.

"Any significant deviation from 2%, above or below, could lead to a repricing in interest rate expectations, and consequently the mortgage market, for better or worse. Homeowners might want to have their tin hats at the ready."

Advertisement
The Markets
by Proactive
Proactive UK has moved.
Small-cap coverage continues on .com
Go to Proactive UK