Antipa Minerals Ltd (ASX:AZY) has maintained its ‘buy recommendation' with a share price target of $0.06 from financial services firm, Shaw and Partners.
Notably, the key drivers for the analyst's valuation are the company’s IGO and Newcrest-funded FY24 exploration programs for its Paterson and Wilki Farm-in projects respectively.
Antipa is currently trading at $0.017 with a market capitalisation of 45.86 million.
Following are excerpts from Shaw and Partners' research report:
Recommendation
We maintain our Buy recommendation and $0.06 price target which is derived from peer-group comparative multiples.
Share prices of most emerging gold companies have been weak over the past twelve months, however the second half of 2023 looks set to be a more constructive period for the small gold sector.
Key Risks
- The gold price is volatile and driven as much by geopolitical events as fundamental supply and demand. As such, the price of gold is relatively difficult to forecast and the actual price may differ substantially from our forecasts.
- Antipa Minerals is not yet producing and there is a risk the company is unable to bring Minyari Dome into production. The project may cost more than expected to build and may not operate as expected.
- There is no guarantee that future exploration results or development studies will be positive.
- Smaller companies carry more significant ‘key personnel’ risk than larger organisations. If senior management departs the company then it could delay projects or exacerbate operational risks.
Core drivers and catalyst
- The Minyari Dome Resource stands at 33 million tonnes at 1.6g/t gold, 0.19% copper, 0.54g/t silver. With mineralisation from the surface, this is ample inventory to support a standalone development. We expect the Antipa Minerals share price to re-rate as the company assess the economics of a Minyari Dome standalone development.
- The Minyari Dome Resource remains open in all directions, representing significant potential exploration upside for the deposit. Other mineralised zones within the Minyari Dome Project, eg Minyari South, WACA West, Sundown, remain open in several directions and represent opportunities to increase near surface Resourec ounces. Ongoing positive exploration results at the Minyari Dome Project, or within other tenement interests, are a potential positive catalyst for the stock.
- Antipa Minerals is a potential M&A target. The most logical acquirer is Newcrest Mining as Minyari Dome is a potential ore source for Newcrest's Telfer operation which is 35 kilometres away. Newcrest Mining is also in the process of farming-in to Antipa's Wiki Project, which is adjacent to Telfer tenements, and owns 9% of Antipa Minerals.