GSK PLC (LSE:GSK, NYSE:GSK) shares have been trading near year’s lows earlier this month, despite a run of fairly good news in the run-up to its quarterly update on Wednesday.
After hitting a decade low in 2021, the stock has had its ups and downs.
In the past month or so there was the out-of-court Zantac deal that should clear "80%" of the liability overhang, according to one analyst, and good news on a groundbreaking gonorrhoea vaccine and hopes that its RSV jab might have the edge over rivals.
On the doubtful side there was a 'not necessarily a red flag' moment for momelotinib, one of three new big regulatory approvals it was aiming to deliver this year.
In the longer term, investors still see the need for boss Emma Walmsley to add some big blockbuster drug licences and bolt-on acquisitions, especially with the upcoming expiry of some key HIV patents.
Zantac also still offers a lingering shadow and investors "will be keen to watch the development in the number of cases", said UBS.
For GSK's marketed drug portfolio, the Swiss investment bank expects continued good momentum for the Shingrix vaccine, benefitting from post-pandemic rebound and new launch-uptake ex-US.
Investor questions are anticipated around launch plans and expectations for newly approved RSV vaccine Arexvy, UBS said, along with focus on the uptake of newly launched injectables Cabenuva and Apretude, plus other growth drivers such as dolutegravir.
For these first quarter the consensus forecast is for £6.8bn sales, £2bn adjusted operating profit via a margin of 30.0%, feeding through to adjusted diluted earnings per share of 35p.
For 2023 as a whole, excluding any contribution from COVID-19 solutions, GSK expects sales to increase between 6% to 8%, with adjusted operating profit growth of 10% to 12%, and EPS up 12% to 15%.