Comment of the Day
19th July 2023
Eoin Treacy
Jul 20
Video commentary for July 19th 2023
A link to today's video commentary is posted in the Subscriber's Area.
Some of the topics discussed include: Global stock markets extend rebounds on belief in a soft landing and interest rate hiking peak, Sri Lanka, Turkey, Greece, Pakistan rebounding on improving perception of debt management, dollar steadies, gold and oil ease, soft commodities firm, Wall Street extends rebound but doubts emerging around AI engagement.
Is ChatGPT Getting 'Dumber'? Usage Drops As Users Complain
This article from Search Engine Journal may be of interest. Here is a section:
ChatGPT, the viral conversational AI chatbot created by OpenAI, appears to be losing some of its initial luster and appeal.
After rocketing to immense popularity following its launch late last year, recent data indicates usage and interest in ChatGPT may be declining.
Some longtime users have complained on social media and developer forums that the AI seems to be producing lower-quality responses than just a few weeks ago.
They describe the bot as “lazier,” “dumber,” and prone to more mistakes or nonsensical answers. However, OpenAI denies intentionally downgrading ChatGPT, tweeting that “we make each new version smarter.”
The company speculates users encountering more flaws reflects increased usage uncovering limitations.
Eoin Treacy's view
It would be convenient to lay the blame for falling usage on the fact many students are on holiday. However, the accusation of poorer results is more difficult to explain away. The challenge for large language models is getting beyond the novelty factor.
Providing essay answers is a useful if questionable use case. The challenge is if the short form responses required by most people have to be carefully proofread, wouldn’t be easier to write them oneself? The efforts of media organizations to fire their workforces have been publicly outed as being very error prone. Wouldn’t it be better to encourage employees to deploy AI where possible so they can enhance their productivity where possible?
This section continues in the Subscriber's Area.
In London, New York and Paris, a Giant Office Bet Goes Wrong
This article from Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:
Investors have also been shielded slightly by Europe’s approach to real-estate valuations, which doesn’t take market sentiment into account. With sales largely frozen, there have been few deals to measure the true decline in values. Inflation-linked rent increases have helped as well.
Nonetheless, opportunists are circling, ready to offer expensive new debt to refinance buildings whose owners can’t inject capital. Oaktree and other alternative-finance providers have held talks with Korean asset managers about large loan facilities to let landlords restructure investments, according to a person familiar with the discussions. Oaktree declined to comment.
Funds under pressure to extend the maturity of their borrowings are looking to inject more capital or inviting mezzanine investment rather than dumping assets on the cheap, says Yoon at Savills, who adds that a few have pulled sales. Increasingly, however, owners are following No. 1 Poultry’s path and having another crack at selling after several failed attempts last year — as seen with the rush for the exit in London.
In Seoul, meanwhile, there’s deepening unease about how the endgame will play out for domestic investors. “With overseas commercial real-estate assets declining, there are significant concerns about distress,” says Oh.
Eoin Treacy's view
In London, a friend signed a seven-year lease for a suite of offices in early 2020 to accommodate 50 people. The rent was £33500 a month. Today half the workforce is gone and the remaining people spend most of their time working from home. Finding a sublet has proven difficult and rents have contracted substantially. Healthy companies can take the hit but those without financial resources will be closer to failure. That’s not good news for the commercial real estate market.
This section continues in the Subscriber's Area.
Email of the day on rough rice
I am curious about the rationale behind taking the rough rice position, beyond the 1000D EMA which shows support in the region of $15. Despite El Niño, according to the FAO latest report July 7 (https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/csdb/en/), there is no supply/demand imbalance in spite of a lower 2022/2023 production. After a slight draw on stocks for the current harvest season, they are due to increase in 2023/2024 as well as worldwide production (same forecasts from the USDA https://www.ers.usda.gov/webdocs/outlooks/106909/rcs-23f.pdf?v=4882.7).
Eoin Treacy's view
Thank you for this question which may be of interest to other subscribers. India is talking about restricting exports to control inflation. Pakistan’s ability to export was impacted by the floods last year. The heat in Texas this year may damage the crop even if this summer is wetter than the last few years. That suggests to me that predictions of a jump in supply are overly optimistic.
This section continues in the Subscriber's Area.
Eoin's personal portfolio: July 19th commodity long initiated
Eoin Treacy's view
One of the questions subscribers ask most often is how to find details of my open trades. To make it easier I will simply repost the latest summary on a daily basis until there is a change.
This section continues in the Subscriber's Area.
© 2023 Eoin Treacy
548 Market Street PMB 72296, San Francisco, CA 94104