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The Markets
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The Markets
by Proactive
Proactive UK has moved.
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The Markets
by Proactive
Proactive UK has moved.
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Financial Services

UK inflation result on Wednesday could spark BoE hike to 5.5% next month

UK inflation data will be in focus in the coming week, after a month ago saw core prices rise to a 31-year high, while in the US all eyes will be on retail sales and industrial activity indicators.

The Office for National Statistics will release the consumer price index at 7am on Wednesday 19 July.

A month ago, UK CPI slowed less than expected in May, coming in at 8.7%, while core prices also confounded expectations by rising to 7.1%.

Food price inflation slowed to 18.3%, however, with recent industry data showing it slowed further in June.

The UK CPI numbers will also be examined in the context of another round of strong wage data in the past week as well as an easing in price pressures in the US and other nations.

Economists on average forecasts for June's headline CPI to slow to 8.2%, with core prices set to remain unchanged at 7.1%.

Deutsche Bank's expects core CPI to rise to 7.2% with risks that it could be even higher, while strategists at Liberum said they anticipate core inflation rising to 7.3%.

With the strong wage data, some economists are already predicting a larger Bank of England hike at the next meeting in August.

Market analyst Michael Hewson at CMC Markets said: "This week’s numbers probably won’t alter the calculus around a 25bps rate hike by the Bank of England in 2 weeks’ time, however a strong number could increase the pressure to go bigger and hike by 50bps, which for now looks the most likely outcome."

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