SparkChange Head of Sales Billal Ismail updates Proactive's Thomas Warner on the latest news from Europe's carbon markets, where the price of EU carbon allowances has been moving up and down between €80-95/tonne over the last few weeks. He attributed the volatility to a tug of war between shorter-term and longer-term factors. Shorter-term factors, such as weather conditions, have played a significant role in driving the market. Recent warm and windy weather across Europe has led to increased solar and wind power outputs, reducing the demand for burning coal or gas and subsequently affecting emissions.
Additionally, falling gas prices have supported demand relative to coal and more emitting forms of fuel, reducing the demand for allowances. Investor positioning has also exacerbated market movements.
Ismail predicts that prices will generally stick between €80-85/tonne but with the risk of an upward breakout exists if hot weather persists during the summer.
SparkChange is a provider of specialist carbon investment products and data.