Comment of the Day
11th July 2023
Eoin Treacy
Jul 12
Video commentary for November 11th 2023
A link to today's video commentary is posted in the Subscriber's Area.
Some of the topics discussed include: China stimulus announcements underwhelm, India extends breakout and Rupee firms, Australia steadies, defense sector firming, crypto stocks completing base formations, gold steady ahead of CPI, Pound extends rebound.
Cotton Hits Monthly High as Market Sees Demand Pickup From China
This article from Bloomberg may be of interest. Here is a section:
The US Department of Agriculture will release new numbers for the US and world cotton production on Wednesday. Analysts in a Bloomberg survey expect little change versus the report from the prior month, which already pointed to growing world cotton consumption.
On the supply side, the cotton futures market is concerned about the condition of the US crop and the yield potential for the new marketing year, said Walter Kunisch, senior commodity market strategist at Hilltop Securities Inc. Heat in US top producer Texas creates challenges for the crop development, he said.
In other markets, raw sugar gained following the release of data on the declining quality for sugar-cane crops in top exporter Brazil. Arabica coffee fell, narrowing its premium over robusta as the pace of Brazil’s harvest increases and El Niño threatens Vietnam’s production of the cheaper beans.
Eoin Treacy's view
The big surprise for my family, in driving the 1100 miles to Phoenix and home again to Dallas, was how green the desert is. When we first completed that drive in May 2021, during our migration out of California, the landscape was barren. The California and Texas droughts had leeched moisture from the landscape. This time, the topography was much more appealing despite high temperatures.
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Turkey Agrees to Back Sweden's NATO Bid in Boost to Alliance
This article from Bloomberg may be of interest. Here is a section:
The about-face comes after months of arduous negotiations over Turkey’s demands and on the eve of a critical two-day NATO summit where leaders including US President Joe Biden are eager to show a united front and signal to Vladimir Putin that his war on Ukraine has only strengthened the alliance.
NATO’s northern enlargement heralds one of the most prominent changes in the European security landscape after Russia’s aggression led to shifts including a ramp-up of defense spending in Germany and plans to bring back conscription in France. The early 2022 attack on Ukraine prompted an almost overnight change in public opposition to membership in NATO in Finland and Sweden.
“Completing Sweden’s accession to NATO is a historic step that benefits the security of all NATO allies at this critical time,” Stoltenberg said in Vilnius. “I will not give you the exact dates for that. But this is a clear commitment.”
Eoin Treacy's view
The big question for defense companies is where will the money come from for countries to meet their NATO spending targets? The need is clear, but the route to additional spending runs through national priorities like pensions and social programs.
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Coinbase Jumps to Highest Since August on Bitcoin ETF Momentum
This article may be of interest. Here is a section:
Coinbase Global Inc (NASDAQ:COIN). gains as much as 13% on Tuesday, trading at its highest intraday level since August and extending a rally driven by optimism over the potential US approval of a Bitcoin ETF.
Shares of the biggest US crypto exchange traded at $88.27 a share as of 2:12 p.m. in New York. The stock has more than doubled so far this year amid a broad bounce for cryptocurrency linked stocks despite regulatory challenges from a lawsuit by the US Securities and Exchange Commission.
On Tuesday, CBOE filed for amendments for five Bitcoin ETF applications, confirming that it reached an agreement with Coinbase on surveillance sharing agreements, a move to address concerns by the SEC over market manipulation. The filings previously had said that the exchange was “expecting” to enter into the agreement with Coinbase.
Eoin Treacy's view
All ETFs need to be able to transact effectively. Considering the sums likely to been committed to ETFs in a bull market, the reliability of execution and the need for compliance with anti-money laundering regulations mean Coinbase is the only US exchange large enough to fill the role.
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Eoin's personal portfolio: stock market leveraged long breakeven stop triggered June 26th
One of the questions subscribers ask most often is how to find details of my open trades. To make it easier I will simply repost the latest summary on a daily basis until there is a change.
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