It’s a new month so as usual the first week brings new economic data, with the big release of the week being the US non-farm payrolls (NFP) on Friday.
There’s also some potentially market-moving macro data in the form of the purchasing managers index (PMI) surveys for the manufacturing and services sectors for most major economies on Monday and Wednesday respectively.
As for interest rates decisions, Australia’s central bank steps to the crease this week.
The next decisions from the US Federal Reserve and European Central Bank are not until the last week of July, with the Bank of England in early August.
US data is likely to drive most market movements in the week, with several jobs market reports plus the ISM manufacturing and service sector reports.
Last month, the NFP showed a very strong rise in jobs numbers of 339,000.
“We do expect to see a moderation this month,” said economist James Knightley at ING, pencilling in something closer to the 225,000 mark, with average hourly earnings seen softening a touch with another 0.3% month-on-month print, which would bring the annual rate of wage growth down to 4.2%.
These datapoints are all backward-looking, so the US job openings and labor turnover survey (JOLTS) on Thursday may be more useful, say the analysts at AJ Bell.
“If the US economy is weakening, you might expect to see vacancies start to decline and the quits rate to slow, the latter because workers may feel it’s safer to stay put rather than make a move if the economic outlook is a bit less certain.”
Last time, job vacancies slipped to 11.4mln in April from March’s all-time record of 11.9mln, while the quits ratio was 2.9%, just below the 3.0% record seen last November and December.