The path to market for Pfizer’s drug danuglipron (danu) for obesity and type 2 diabetes looks “extremely challenging” as its development lags one to two years behind its top competitors, analysts at UBS believe.
They shared this view in a note to clients following Pfizer’s announcement that it has chosen to advance danu and terminate its lotiglipron (loti) program for these two indications based on data from a Phase 1 drug-drug interaction study and an ongoing Phase 2 trial in obesity and type 2 diabetes.
“The good news is no such transaminase elevations have been reported for the danu programs,” the analysts wrote.
“The bad news is that danu currently requires twice-daily dosing, with PFE now hoping it can develop a once-daily formulation. However, this will come with challenges as danu's safety/tolerability already looks less favorable versus Eli Lilly and Co (NYSE:LLY)’s orforglipron and Novo Nordisk (NYSE:NVO)'s oral sema (both dosed once-daily) and so changing the pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) profile to allow for once-daily dosing could negatively impact tolerability.”
The analysts noted that Pfizer is set to report danu’s Phase 2 obesity data in the second half of 2023 and plans to finalize the late-stage program by the year-end of 2023.
They are skeptical of Pfizer’s estimates that danu will generate about $10 billion in peak sales, compared to the consensus estimate of $1.6 billion and the UBS analysts’ forecast of $1 billion.
“We see this as highly unlikely given danu is less convenient (currently twice daily), not differentiated (or potentially negatively differentiated), one to two years behind dominant competitors Eli Lilly and Novo and Pfizer currently has no meaningful commercial presence in the diabetes market,” they wrote.
The analysts awarded the stock a ‘Neutral’ rating and a $39 price target. Pfizer shares are currently trading at $36.36.
Contact the author at emily.jarvie@proactiveinvestors.com
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