The US may yet avoid a recession but still faces the possibility of “mini stagflation,” Goldman Sachs Group Inc President and Chief Operating Officer John Waldron said at the Bloomberg Invest conference.
“This is the best predicted recession that hasn’t happened yet and may not happen,” Waldron said. “I often ask myself late at night, Can we actually have a recession with 3.5% unemployment? Seems unlikely."
One outcome the firm is preparing for is a “mini stagflationary scenario,” he said. “That’s not going to be a called a recession, but that’s not going to feel great” because it “could persist for a while where you just get sluggish growth.”
Many economists have been predicting a recession is coming as the Federal Reserve aggressively raises interest rates to slow the economy and counter rising inflation.
US companies announced more layoffs in the first five months of 2023 than in all of last year, and applications for US unemployment benefits jumped last week to the highest level since October 2021.
Goldman itself is gearing up for further jobs cuts with reports another 250 posts are set to be axed.
Waldron said: “"We are running the firm tighter, we are being more cautious."