The oil price remained under pressure on Wednesday hit by concerns about the strength of the global economy and ahead of a key meeting on Sunday with mixed messages on production coming from two leading players.
The price of Brent crude was down a further 2.2% on Wednesday to $72.11 while West Texas Intermediate declined 2.3% to $67.91.
The 13 members of Opec and 10 other oil-producing countries, known as Opec+, will meet on Sunday in Vienna to decide on production policy.
The oil cartel in April decided to cut production from this month to the end of this year in a bid to bolster oil prices.
Last week, Saudi Arabian Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, the de-facto leader of Opec, seemed to suggest a further cut could be on the way.
He told Bloomberg: “Speculators, like in any market they are there to stay, I keep advising them that they will be ouching, they did ouch in April, I don't have to show my cards I'm not a poker player ... but I would just tell them watch out."
But Russian deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said he expected no new steps from Opec+ in Vienna, according to Russian media reports.
RBC Capital Markets believe the two policy options on the table are a deeper cut or staying the course.
"Despite strong Russian output and their increasing share in Asian markets, we are still not envisioning a return to the March 2020 market supply flood at this juncture," the broker said.
"As of late last week, it seems no decision had been made on the best course of action, as leading players waited to see how key events played out such as the US debt ceiling discussions," RBC explained.
"If there is a bias to the Opec leadership at present, it appears to be one of active management and striving to ensure that the group is not completely overtaken by macro headwinds or souring market sentiment," the broker added.
"We also do not believe that Saudi Arabia is so aggrieved by the loss of market share in Asia that it’s seeking to repeat the March 2020 production battle with Moscow," RBC said.
"There is no secret that Saudi Arabia wants oil prices as high as possible. However, will a June intervention make any difference to the likely downward trajectory of oil prices in the next few months, just as happened after the surprise April output cut?" Stephen Innes of SPI Asset Management said.
"Russian oil is the biggest wild card in the oil market,” Innes added.
“While Opec could remain highly compliant with its threat to cut, the ongoing dynamic concerning Russian supply is a bearish risk for oil," he felt.
Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote Bank, pointed out that Russia may not follow Opec’s output cuts, in which case the internal conflict may prevent the cartel from reducing supply in a way to give a jolt to oil prices.
“There is little chance that we see the kind of discord like back in 2020, as the Ukrainian war strengthen the ties between two allies,” she felt.
“But any Russian veto could materially reduce Opec’s power of hit on oil prices,” she added.