Cisco Systems (NASDAQ:CSCO) has earned a repeat ‘Neutral’ rating from UBS analysts following the release of its third quarter fiscal 2023 results.
The analysts wrote in a note to clients that, as expected, a significant improvement in the supply chain during the quarter drove Cisco’s revenue to $14.6 billion, 1% above their estimate.
However, orders declined 23% during the quarter as enterprise, service provider, and cloud customers “pushed prior orders to the right,” they noted.
“Management also noted that lead times have come down 40% over the past two quarters giving customers confidence to delay orders, pressuring FY24 (full year 2024) growth,” they wrote.
“Although management did not provide formal FY24 guidance, we believe management's comments regarding 'modest' revenue growth next year with 'faster' earnings per share (EPS) growth is consistent with our view but below the street.”
However, the analysts noted that they believe that, with Cisco projecting slightly below their 12 times FY24E earnings per share of $4, previously $3.93 and compared to the consensus $4.03, the downside was limited near-term despite the company’s cautious but prudent outlook.
The analysts wrote that they were adjusting their fourth quarter and full-year 2023 earnings per share (EPS) estimates to reflect an acceleration in revenue recognition from backlog balanced by softer order growth.
“As such, we tweak FY23 revenue to $56.9 billion from $56.8 billion and EPS to $3.81 from $3.76,” they wrote. “Given better margins and larger buybacks, our FY24 revenue and EPS are bumped to $58.5 billion and $4.00 from $58.4 billion and $3.93.”
They awarded the stock a price target of US$51, which represents about 13x their FY24E EPS of $4. Cisco shares were trading at US$47.64 late Thursday morning.
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