London’s bleary-eyed morning commuters could be in for a rude awakening if the global coffee bean shortage continues to drive brew prices up.
Soaring demand for the cheaper robusta bean variety (yet another effect of the cost-of-living crisis perhaps?) is causing a global shortage of the hardier bean as growers struggle to keep up.
Meanwhile, robusta’s more sophisticated cousin, the arabica variety typically used in fancier outlets, has been hit by severe frost and natural disasters in the arabica-growing hotspots of Brazil and Central America.
Though robusta, which is mainly grown in Vietnam and Indonesia, is typically used in instant coffee blends, it is also finding its way into espresso-based brews.
Even some top-end chains, such as popular City haunt Black Sheep Coffee, exclusively use robusta in their cuppas, while the nation’s greasy spoons also tend to use blends consisting of both arabica and robusta.
Recent supply constraints from all this demand have sent London robusta futures soaring to a 12-year in the past week, marking a 30% year-to-date increase.
This is great news for investors, but a portent of more pain to come for caffeine fiends seeking a morning pick-me-up.
As noted in Bloomberg today, instant coffee prices in Europe’s largest coffee market Germany have increased by up to 20% in the past year, for which London commuters can certainly commiserate.
Now that £4 flat whites are far from uncommon, could six ounces of liquid comprising one-third espresso, one-third steamed milk and one-third foam really head above a Lady Godiva?
One would hope not, especially since a strong flat white can take the edge off a stressful commute, but unfortunately, many of London's cafes have no choice but to hike prices.
Rachel Ho, who co-owns local Tottenham institution Craving Coffee with her partner Matt, says it's not just about the beans; soaring milk prices have hit margins even worse, not to mention rising staff and utilities costs.
"We've tried to limit our price rises and take as much of the hit as possible, because we don't want to make it unobtainable for customers," said Ho, who has witnessed a steep decline in coffee sales in the past year or two.
"Anecdotally speaking, customers are making coffee more at home and less regularly out, as it's too expensive."