Aston Martin’s resurgence has been one of unlikeliest stories in the Formula One season so far and likewise, the healthy performance of its shares off the track has been equally unexpected.
Of course, the F1 teams and carmaker may be partners but are different entities, albeit they share the same name and chairman in Canadian billionaire Lawrence Stroll, even so after a few stalls both seem to be heading in the right direction.
Aston Martin Lagonda’s first quarter numbers on Wednesday should confirm the improvement according to the City, though there is some doubt about the strength of the recent rally.
Shares in the market are 239p currently having risen 165% in the last six months.
Deutsche Bank sees slightly higher wholesale volumes and higher selling prices (ASP), helped by the new DBX SUV, which should feed through into a slightly higher operating margin.
“Overall, we forecast an OK start to the year and no change to the outlook for 2023.”
Jefferies sees AML benefiting from the strength of demand and pricing for luxury cars currently.
“We assume 1,210 units sold (+4% year-on-year at £181,000 ASP,) for revenue £279mln
“Cost performance is still lagging, at least until replacement of front engine cars in the second half and we assume gross margin will remain slightly below 33%, underlying profits [EBITDA] £41mln, EBIT loss £(49)mln, with FCF negative (£106) mln."
Aston Martin sees success on the track as a way of building its brand but Jefferies says while the F1 results might improve sentiment it will have no impact yet on trading.
'Underperform" with a 160p target is its view, while Deutsche Bank is a holder with a 155p fair price estimate.