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The Markets
by Proactive
Proactive UK has moved.
Coverage of London’s small caps continues on proactiveinvestors.com
Go to Proactive UK
The Markets
by Proactive
Proactive UK has moved.
Small-cap coverage continues on .com
Go to Proactive UK
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The Markets
by Proactive
Proactive UK has moved.
Small-cap coverage continues on .com
Go to Proactive UK

Financial Services

Macro week ahead: UK inflation called lower after February shock rebound

UK inflation figures on Wednesday will be the key macroeconomic data in the coming week, with the price index having delivered a shock rebound last month when most were expecting it to fall.

The consumer price index bounced to 10.4% in February, according to the last update from the Office for National Statistics, from 10.1% in January, when the market had been looking for a fall to 9.9%. On a month-over-month basis CPI gained 1.1%, following a fall of 0.6% in January.

Core CPI, which excludes fuel and food, was 6.2% from 5.8%, while the CPIH index, which includes owner-occupier housing costs, rose by 9.2% year-on-year, against 8.8% in the prior month.

Shortly after, the Bank of England raised UK interest rates by a quarter point and economists said if inflation continues to prove 'stickily' high, could be followed by further hikes.

But inflation is seen falling back to 10.2% in March, with an easing in core CPI to 6.0% and month-on-month inflation to 0.3%.

"Spring may be springing and blossom may be blossoming, but central bankers, politicians and investors continue to hope that inflation will wither," said Danni Hewson, AJ Bell head of financial analysis.

"The increase in services will be of particular concern to the Bank of England, as that may mean inflation is becoming entrenched, especially as wage growth is still ticking along (particularly for those in the private sector)."

This inflation reading will be among the data shaping the next decision from the BoE's monetary policy committee, though it does not come until 11 May (the day after the April CPI release will be published), with markets currently looking for a further quarter-point increase in the base rate to 4.5%, with either August or September maybe seeing one last hike for this cycle to 4.75%.

Other key economic data next week for the UK includes unemployment, wage and claimant count numbers on Tuesday, plus Friday's GfK consumer confidence data and ONS retail sales.

There's also PMI flash numbers on Friday for the UK, US and other major economies.

Elsewhere, there is a profusion of US housing market data, with NAHB Housing Market Index on Monday, building permits and housing starts on Tuesday, with existing home sales on Thursday.

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