Shell's trading update points to a good operational delivery during the quarter, falling opex and a strong contribution from trading, according to Jefferies.
Lower than expected cash taxes and working capital unchanged at the mid-point of guidance should help Shell keep quarterly buybacks flat at US$4bn according to the broker.
The oil major had earlier updated investors on progress between January and March which was well received by the market with shares advancing 1.7%.
In Integrated Gas, Jefferies highlighted raised guidance for liquefaction from the previous quarter to 7-7.4mt from 6.6-7.2mt before and the broker’s own forecast of 6.8mt.
Production estimates were also tightened upwards to a range of 930-970kboe/d from 910-970kboe/d before with Shell indicating trading is “similar" quarter on quarter – Jefferies pointed out the fourth quarter was very strong.
Analysts at the broker highlighted a fall in operating expenditure to US$2.3-2.85bn from US$3bn in quarter four and improved sales volumes in marketing.
In chemicals and products refining margins have fallen materially quarter on quarter to US$15/barrel from US$19 in quarter four but trading and optimisation is expected to be significantly higher.
Tax payments of between US$2.6bn to US$3.4bn are favourable compared to the broker’s US$3.3bn forecast and the US$4.8bn paid in the fourth quarter while working capital inflows of between negative or positive US$3bn are set against Jefferies’ negative US$2bn prediction.
Jefferies has a buy rating on Shell and a 2,363p price target.