In one sense, you could argue that this whole thing has gone on long enough. That seems to be what the Democrats are saying, at least: let’s indict Trump, convict him and move on. Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi even went so far as to say on Twitter that it was incumbent on Trump to prove himself innocent, rather than the more normal procedure whereby innocence is presumed until guilt is proved.
Perversely, though, the move to indict and arrest Trump from New York’s DA Alvin Bragg, is likely to help the intended target far more than any barnstorming series of rallies across the Midwest.
Trump’s numbers have run higher in the polls over the past couple of weeks, and it looks like they might run higher still.
What’s more, it seems to have taken the indictment and arrest of Trump to prove that the former President doesn’t after all need Twitter to make him great again. This indictment may turn out to be bearish for someone unexpected – Elon Musk.
But what will it mean for wider America?
Pundits are talking of a seminal moment.
The left is largely gleeful. But the right isn’t exactly despondent, either.
Both sides think there’s something in it for them.
The left reckons embroiling Trump in legal complexities when he’s trying to run for President ought to derail his campaign nicely. And of course, if he’s convicted, he won’t be able to run.
But will he be convicted?
Right-wing pundits note that federal police have taken a look at these charges that are now being issued at a state level, and declined to pursue them. They note further that the payment to the porn star which is at the centre of this farrago would usually be classified as a misdemeanour, but the statute of limitations has run out on that. Therefore, it’s been upgraded to a felony.
Or to put it another way, it’s all theatre.
Alvin Bragg campaigned on indicting Trump, and now he’s looking to deliver on that promise.
But if it is theatre, it’s theatre with very high stakes.
Not as high, perhaps, as when President Lincoln went to the theatre in 1865. But it’s heading into that territory.
For one thing, Donald Trump’s main residence is in Mar-a-Lago, in Florida, which has lately become a Republican stronghold under Governor Ron DeSantis. DeSantis and Trump aren’t exactly close these days, but DeSantis made it pretty clear he wouldn't extradite Trump to New York, thus potentially contraventing article IV of the US Constitution and putting that perennial problem of States' rights back on the table.
In the end, perhaps fearing that he would be upstaged by any DeSantis resitance, Trump went voluntarily.
But he might not have done.
And this is the kind of danger we're now in - issues that are slowly gnawing away at the edges of the US constitution.
And for why - over a payment to a porn star that was actually made not by Trump, but by his former lawyer, who is now, himself, a convicted felon.
That won’t matter to hardcore Democrats, who’ve been trying to nail Trump for years. At least not at this present moment. But it might matter later, if and when he’s acquitted. Because a trial and acquittal will be exactly the kind of publicity Trump knows how to work round to his advantage.
Or, to go with the right wing pundits for a moment, this could win Trump the Presidency.
Would that be bad?
Firstly, he has openly stated that one of his first moves would be to de-escalate the war in Ukraine. Has Trump ever colluded with Russia? – nothing was ever proven, and nothing now is likely to be. On the whole, he was less warlike than his predecessor presidents, and so this aspiration might well be genuine. That would be bullish for the world in general, although perhaps bearish for Raytheon, Lockheed Martin (NYSE:LMT) and BAE Systems.
More broadly, Trump’s economic record in his first term wasn’t actually that bad, although it wasn’t always clear that he really understood what he was boasting about. This time round, he’s likely to try to unravel the ‘Deep State’ with a vengeance, having largely failed in his first term. Whether or not you regard the Deep State as pernicious or benign, an approach like that is likely to lead to less regulation, and to be broadly good for business.
On the other hand, Trump was also the man who brought back tariffs and trade blocs, and who reinvented China as a major enemy of the Western World. That could all be negative.
Then, there’s the Democrat Dream: a conviction that knocks Donald Trump out of the race. They’d be left facing DeSantis, or at the outside Chris Christie, and might well be able to propel President Biden in for a second term himself. After all, although inflation is still running wild, there is a case to be made that the US economy isn’t all bad right now, providing you don’t bank with SVB.
Biden is still electable, just about. Although no-one really thinks it's him in charge.
Which brings a third factor into play: the overall credibility of the US system.
Democrats would argue Trump broke this.
Trump supporters would argue that it was already broken, and Trump just brought the issue into the light of day. Whatever happens, though, the credibility of the US system doesn’t look good. After all, what is democracy, if your biggest democratic contest comes down to a payment to a porn star by a third party?
How much integrity does the US system really have, or is it about to break apart? Certainly, the US system can no longer claim to be the kind of democracy you’d want to export to the rest of the world, whether you’re a neocon like George W. Bush, or a Clintonite. Rather, what we're witnessing now feels more like the death-throes of a dying empire.
And in that context, note that while the US dollar still holds sway, for now, China has just brokered a major thaw in relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia. And it’s trying to do the same in Ukraine.
Change is coming, and long-term it’s bearish for the West.