Aviva PLC (LSE:AV.) results tomorrow will see the spotlight on shareholder returns and other things the life insurer might spend its spare cash on.
The market will be looking out for an announcement on a sustainable share buyback, with analyst estimates ranging from £300m per year from UBS to £284mln from Barclays, which expectations that there may be more colour on additional one-off excess capital returns.
City analysts are, on average, also forecasting a dividend of 32.8p per share, which is above the company's guidance in January of around 31p, rising to 32.5p for 2023.
"We do not expect any excess capital returns in addition to the recurring share buyback announcement," the UBS analysts said.
Comments on returns will not reflect the battle over potential financial industry reforms that are going on in the background, which the life industry and government hope will unlock many tens of billions of pounds for extra returns and investment, while the Bank of England’s regulatory arm believes the proposals are too risky.
UBS said another point of focus will be updates on Aviva’s acquistion strategy and whether management will consider larger-scale M&A.
There should also be a focus on motor insurance, where management have flagged opportunities to expand market share.