Comment of the Day
27th February 2023
Video commentary for February 27th 2023
A link to today's video commentary is posted in the Subscriber's Area.
Some of the topics discussed include: are we still in a secular bull market or is inflation killing it. this looks more like an inflationary boom which is inevitably followed by an inflationary bust. stocks fail to hold rebounds, Germany bonds extend decline, Treasuries steady, China eases
Australia Recession Risk Rises as RBA Seen Hiking More Than Fed
This article from Bloomberg may be of interest. Here is a section:
While US mortgage holders tend to borrow over 30-year terms, insulating them from tightening cycles, a majority of Australian borrowers are on variable rate home loans that adjust upwards each time the central bank hikes.
Australia’s housing market is already in a downturn and higher borrowing costs are likely to drive more declines this year.
There’s a further risk from re-pricing of loans that were fixed for 2-3 years at record-low rates during the pandemic. RBA data suggest 23% of all outstanding mortgage debt will be re-priced this year and in some cases borrowing costs will more than double to close to 6%.
While the RBA is relatively sanguine about housing, Eliza Owen, head of research at property consultancy CoreLogic Inc., sees risks on the horizon.
“Australians with fixed-rate loans are about to see a painful adjustment. This is partly the intention of rising rates,” Owen said. “The true test of the market will be over the next 10 months.”
Eoin Treacy's view
Australia, “the lucky country” avoided recessions between the early 1990s and the pandemic because many of the troubles assailing the rest of the world did not impact the domestic market. Moreover the boom of Chinese demand, for just about everything Australia exports, was a major boost to the economy over the last twenty years and insulated Australia from the credit crisis.
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France Forges Pact to Make Nuclear Part of EU Clean Energy Shift
This article from Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:
“The US, the UK, South Korea, China, India and even Japan are contemplating using nuclear energy as an important means to decarbonize their economies, and we need to be on the same level playing field,” Pannier-Runacher said Monday.
The next battleground is a definition of “green hydrogen” in an EU directive known as RED3, which would set targets for using the fuel in industry and transport. France is pushing for nuclear to be considered a clean energy source, while countries such as Spain and Germany are focusing on hydrogen derived from renewables such as wind or solar.
The EU sees hydrogen as a key pillar of its efforts to slash emissions by 55% by 2030. The outcome of the negotiations could jeopardize a flagship project to pump the fuel from Barcelona to Marseille and then onto Berlin via a pipeline, known as BarMar or H2Med.
France’s Hydrogen Pipeline With Spain at Risk Over Green Rules For “green investments,” France has already reached a compromise with Germany to allow nuclear energy and natural gas to receive funding from environmental investors. While that added the two energy sources to the so-called EU taxonomy — a list of activities deemed in line with the bloc’s transition to climate neutrality — there are still concerns the move could divert investment away from renewables.
The French initiative was welcomed by a number of other EU nations. “We are happy that nuclear somehow came back to the discussion in the EU — years ago it was kind of a forbidden topic,” said Anna Moskwa, Poland’s minister of climate and environment. “It is of our common interest to build stable sources, that is why Poland decided to develop nuclear.”
Eoin Treacy's view
There is nothing quite like a war on the border to focus minds on the need for energy security. Nuclear reactors are reliable and each one lasts for decades. That does not mean they are free and there is certainly room to improve efficiencies in construction. However, many of the issues associated with budget overruns have to do with planning delays and custom part manufacturing. Both of these obstacles can be overcome by settling on a smaller design and building more of them.
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Why Unprofitable Stocks Make The IBD 50; Here's How 4 Earn Their Place
This article from Investor’s Business Daily may be of interest. Here is a section:
Outstanding sales growth is a sign of a market leader, even in cases when companies are unprofitable. Other factors contribute to the selection criteria for IBD 50, including past stock performance. For example, many stocks with a weak bottom-line outlook have high Relative Strength Ratings.
Monday.com posted two profitable quarters of EPS in Q3 and Q4 after a string of losses. The profitable quarters helped the company post a positive 2022 with 73 cent EPS, but analysts are expecting losses of 36 cents in 2023 and 9 cents in 2024.
"We finished FY '22 with strong revenue growth, improving efficiency and positive free cash flow for the second consecutive year," said co-CEO Roy Mann. "Despite macro uncertainties, we believe we are well positioned for the road ahead."
The Israel-based software applications and workload management firm gave a full-year 2023 revenue range of $688 million to $693 million, exceeding analysts expectations.
Eoin Treacy's view
Over the last couple of years as my daughters have grown up and the number of activities they pursue has increased, I find myself using several different apps for keeping in contact with clubs and communicating with other parents.
We use KakaoTalk for fencing, Groupme for rowing, TeamSnap for tennis, my siblings recently began connecting on a WhatsApp group, meetings take place on Microsoft Teams, RingCentral or Zoom. Paying people takes place on Venmo or Zelle.
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