Is it all the fault of Sirius Minerals?
Lots of things were, after all, including the temporary decimation of all small-time UK investor enthusiasm for mining.
But time marches on. In due course, the ailing Woodsmith mine that caused all the trouble for Sirius was acquired at a knock-down price by Anglo American PLC (LSE:AAL), the mining major that constantly suffers a discount for its overexposure to Southern Africa.
What better way of diversifying away from the risk of no power and endemic corruption than to go to the north of England, where they do have power, where they don’t have much corruption, but where it’s also hard to say if they have any meaningful natural resources?
Woodsmith was acquired on the cheap, and has already cost Anglo American US$1.7bn in further write-downs.
Will it cost still more?
Anglo American says Woodsmith is still a goer, that potential customers are reporting favourably on the yet to be properly marketed polyhalite product, and that the initial target is five million tonnes of production by 2027.
In these times of Brexit and general political and economic chaos and bungling, if Anglo can pull that cat out of the bag it will win a lot of friends and be able to influence people too, at high levels.
But it’s still a big if.
In a note released this week, analysts at UBS forecast that around one-sixth of the value of Anglo American is at risk as they set a price target of 2,500p on the stock and reiterated a 'sell' rating.
The analysts devoted the bulk of its commentary - in an eight-page note that was largely given over to numbers - to Woodsmith.
Yes, noted the UBS analysts, Anglo says it reckons it will now get a higher price for its polyhalite. But they also noted that “significant uncertainty” remains both in regard to pricing and demand, two troublesome issues that have dogged Woodsmith from the start: does anybody actually want what it’s selling?
As for the rest of Anglo, as usual, it remains the laggard of the big four miners. Yes, it leads in diamonds, but consumer demand remains lacklustre. Elsewhere, the UBS analysts reckon Anglo American is vulnerable in a falling commodity price environment, which is what we’re in now.
As for Woodsmith, the UBS analysts pulled no punches, concluding: “We remain skeptical as to whether it will be value accretive."