Hopes that Persimmon and Taylor Wimpey are over the worst of last year’s housing wobble have added 23% and 41% respectively to their share prices since October.
True, mortgages have started to come down after the chaos following Liz Truss’s mini-Budget but plenty of concerns remain.
Like rival Persimmon, Taylor Wimpey will have to deal with the end of the government’s Help-To-Buy scheme at the end of March, which won’t help if demand is struggling.
And house sales have been falling, ONS data suggests the UK is back at 2015 levels, while prices have dipped by around £12,000 according to the Halifax survey.
So, forward sales will be a key indicator for both housebuilders when they report - Persimmon on Wednesday (1 March). and Taylor Wimpey Thursday.
Citi predicts Persimmon’s sales rate will have recovered to 0.5-0.6 from an exit rate of 0.19 at the end of the final quarter of 2022.
Profits are forecast at £1.01bn, though Citi expects volumes this year (2023) to fall by 30%, prices by 3% and operating margins to drop below 20%.
Taylor Wimpey on Thursday predicted underlying profits of £921mln in an update in January so again the focus will be on how it sees the current year ahead panning out.