As the month of March comes into view it brings the first FTSE 100 and 250 index reshuffles of the year, with Mike Ashley's Frasers Group PLC (LSE:FRAS) teetering on the edge of relegation.
Unlike the promotion and demotion at the end of football seasons, the FTSE rejig is a quarterly event, presenting an opportunity for mid-caps to climb into the big league.
On the flip side, the smallest companies by market cap on the blue-chip index risk losing their position and falling into London’s secondary index.
As such, the reshuffle often gives investors a flavour of which sectors are in and out of favour.
Indications of the changes for the first quarterly update of 2023 will be based on companies' size when the market closes this Friday, 17 February, with the true cut-off date being the close on Tuesday 28 February, with the review taking place based on end-of-day prices.
The reshuffle is confirmed after the market close on Wednesday 1 March, with the changes implemented when the market opens on 20 March.
In order to avoid companies yo-yo-ing between the two indices, a company must be able to climb into the top 90 by market cap to be promoted into the FTSE 100. Likewise, to be demoted, it must fall below the 110th position in terms of market cap.
Based on current market caps, Frasers is on the brink of the drop, with its £3.6bn market cap putting it in 109th position.
Insurer Hiscox Ltd (LSE:HSX) is more likely to be safe, at £3.9bn and in 103rd position.
Among promotion hopefuls, investment firm Intermediate Capital Group (LSE:ICP) and engineering group IMI PLC (LSE:IMI) are both larger in terms of market cap, at £4.2bn and £4bn, but at 97th and 101st would need some extra impetus to make the jump this time.
On the last reshuffle, which was confirmed on 1 December 2022, three companies were promoted while three companies were demoted.
Investment group Abrdn, specialist insurer Beazley and engineering group Weir were promoted.
Harbour Energy, Dechra Pharmaceuticals and Intermediate Capital Group (LSE:ICP) were relegated.
If there are no changes this time, the next reshuffle will come into view at the end of May and things could be very different, with easyJet PLC (LSE:EZJ), Greencoat UK Wind PLC (LSE:UKW) and Howden Joinery Group (LSE:HWDN) currently pushing for promotion, while Hargreaves Lansdown PLC, British Land Co, United Group and Johnson Matthey are the current group with demotion risks.