UK fourth-quarter gross domestic product will be updated, fresh from some gloomy forecasts from the Bank of England and IMF.
The economy contracted 0.3% in the third quarter and a similar contraction would mean the UK economy had ended last year in recession.
A slowdown in September saw a rebound in October, 0.1% expansion in November but if there was a boost from the World Cup in December it could see Q4 avoid a contraction and the “R word”, even when taking into account the disruptive nature of strike action.
"Whatever the outcome of this week’s GDP numbers it’s likely to be a close-run thing, but with the September decline of -0.8% set to drop out of the rolling 3-month numbers the UK might avoid a technical recession," said Michael Hewson at CMC Markets.
"Whatever the outcome of this week’s numbers the nuance is likely to be lost on a lot of people given how finances are coming under strain. What we do know is that any growth is likely to be pretty anaemic, and 2023 is still likely to be very challenging."
Economists expect a modest contraction in the first quarter of 2023, and possibly the second too, meaning recession is still the base case for many professional predictors.
"It is however likely to be very mild by historical standards, not least because the recent fall in gas prices now means the government can probably cancel April’s planned increase in household energy bills – and indeed they’ll probably have fallen from the current £2,500 annual average to £2,000 by the summer," said economist James Knightley at ING.
Significant announcements
Trading update: Lancashire Holdings PLC
AGMs: Red Rock Resources, Victrex
Economic announcements: GDP (UK), Balance of Trade (UK), Index of Services (UK), Industrial Production (UK), U. of Michigan Confidence (US)