We heard on Wednesday that GSK PLC (LSE:GSK, NYSE:GSK) could be the first to the market with a drug for RSV, a cold-like condition that can be deadly. Here we take a look at what exactly is and just how big a money spinner it could be for drug companies big and small.
A quick explainer
Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) is a highly contagious respiratory illness that affects people of all ages, but it can be especially dangerous for the elderly. RSV is a common cause of respiratory illness in young children, but it can also be serious for older adults, especially those with underlying health conditions such as heart or lung disease, or weakened immune systems.
The symptoms of RSV in adults can range from mild to severe and may include coughing, sneezing, a runny nose, sore throat, and a fever. In some cases, RSV can lead to more serious complications such as pneumonia or bronchitis, which can be life-threatening for elderly individuals.
The risk of severe illness from RSV is higher in the elderly population due to several factors. As people age, their immune systems become weaker, making it harder for them to fight off infections. Additionally, many older adults have underlying health conditions that can weaken their immune system and make it harder for them to recover from an illness like RSV.
It is important for the elderly to take steps to protect themselves from RSV, such as washing their hands regularly, avoiding close contact with people who are sick and getting a flu vaccine. The flu vaccine will not protect against RSV, but it can help prevent other respiratory illnesses that can weaken the immune system and make it harder to fight off RSV.
Who’s doing what?
After years of setbacks, the RSV vaccine field is experiencing a resurgence, with multiple promising results from Phase III trials in elderly adults.
Three vaccines aimed at older adults are poised to receive regulatory approval in 2023, with GSK and Pfizer receiving priority reviews from the FDA and May PDUFA dates.
Meanwhile, Moderna is trailing behind but is expected to submit its mRNA-based RSV vaccine (mRNA-1345) for approval in early 2023, potentially becoming the first mRNA-based RSV vaccine to hit the market.
However, if the RSV virus begins to mutate, the effectiveness of these vaccines may need to be re-evaluated. In such a scenario, Moderna's mRNA vaccine may have an advantage due to its ability to quickly modify antigens to target newly emerged variant strains.
So, what’s the fuss?
Upwards of $10bn is at stake. According to an article in FierceBio, citing high-profile pharma analyst Geoffrey Porges, GSK will generate approximately $2.9bn in revenue by 2030, while Pfizer is expected to garner US$2.1bn, Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ) US$1.7bn, and Sanofi US$1.2bn.
What about the smaller fish?
Written about lots on these pages is the success of hVIVO PLC, a contract research group, which has a facility in London’s east end used to assess whether these vaccines actually do what they are supposed to. It stages what are called human challenge studies. Business has been so brisk, hVIVO PLC is currently trading well ahead of expectations.
In the drug development sphere, Synairgen PLC (AIM:SNG, OTC:SYGGF) is developing a broad-based treatment that could potentially combat both flu and RSV, while Poolbeg Pharma PLC (AIM:POLB, OTCQB:POLBF) has identified and pre-clinical asset using artificial intelligence – a world-first.