China’s population shrank last year for the first time in six decades, the start of what is expected to be a 40% decline over the next 60 years.
The number of people in the country fell to 1.41275bn by the end of 2022 from 1.41260bn a year earlier, according to an update from the National Bureau of Statistics on Tuesday.
This was a decline of 850,000 people.
In 2023, India (population 1.39bn) is predicted to overtake China as the world’s most populous nation, based on United Nations forecasts.
There were 10.4mln births in China last year, with the total fertility rate decreasing from 2.6 in the 1980s to just 1.15 in 2021, well below the 2.1 level that would be required to replace deaths. India’s daily births of around 86,000 compares to roughly 49,400 babies born in China every day.
China’s population is forecast to decline from 1.42bn this year to 1.3bn in 2050 and below 800mln by 2100, according to the United Nations base case.
A more dramatic drop is predicted by a recent study by the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, which foresees China’s population plunging to 587mln by 2100.
This is despite efforts by Beijing to reverse the trend that was started deliberately by the controversial one-child policy introduced in the late 1970s.
China’s demographics give “reason for concern”, said analysts at Danske Bank, noting that its economy faces many of the same challenges as western economies, with last year's GDP the second weakest since the 1970s.
“In future, slower population growth implies shrinking labour force, weaker growth in domestic demand and rising pressure on the country's pension system.
“Many businesses are already re-assessing their risks and exposure to China from a geopolitical perspective, and aging of the Chinese population adds to these considerations. In an era of rising geopolitical tensions and growing shortages of skilled labour, outsourcing is not necessarily the similar low hanging fruit as it used to be.”