Investors looking at autonomous driving technology scenarios should be focusing on ‘eyes off’ technology and ‘software defined vehicles (SDVs), according to UBS.
According to the Swiss bank, the prospect of cars becoming robotaxis has “decreased notably”, but autonomous driving technology or ‘eyes off’ functionality in specific operational design domains (ODDs) looks set to expand rapidly,
New SDV models, meanwhile, are being proposed by companies such as Sony Honda Mobility (SHM) and BMW and the importance of and necessity for business model change continue to mount, adds the bank
“Sensors are evolving rapidly Alongside the inclusion and expansion of eyes-off autonomous driving technologies, the roll-out of next-generation sensing hardware such as high-end radar, LiDAR (light detection and ranging) scanners, and thermal cameras is likely to gain momentum in earnest.”
In the LiDAR area, the focus is on the mass production of first-generation products in 2023-2026, while at the technology level, the discussion is shifting to the technology generations to follow from 2026.
In the radar area, functionality is likely to progress sharply toward 3G/imaging radars, believes UBS, while thermal cameras are increasingly likely to be included in ADAS/autonomous driving sensors.
“Sony Honda Mobility (SMH) has unveiled high-spec hardware including the mounting of 45 sensors and an alliance with Epic Games.
“It appears to be targeting high value-added services as yet not present in the market based on infotainment and passenger sensing.”
UBS adds that the earnings model seen for smartphones in which earnings surpass vehicle hardware value by several multiples is still some way off and all the companies in the sector face the opportunity/risk to be either in the strong or the weak groups.
Groups highlighted by UBS include Aeva, Opsys Technologies, Clevon, Aeye as well as Sony Honda Mobility.