Tilray Inc (NASDAQ:TLRY) remained on the 'Buy' list at Canaccord Genuity (TSX:CF, LSE:CF) but analysts cut their price target following a weaker-than-anticipated second quarter print.
In a note the broker said the results, combined with the recent softening of US federal catalysts following the conclusion of the congressional “lame-duck” session, which "ultimately did not advance any cannabis reforms" had prompted it to reduce its target to US$5 from US$7.
Net revenues in the second quarter of around US$144.1 million were below Canaccord’s US$153.7 million forecast although it pointed out that on a constant currency basis revenues would have been closer to US$158 million.
READ: Tilray Brands' shares fall as it swings into the red and revenue misses forecast
Below the top line, consolidated gross profit came in at US$40.1 million, representing an adjusted margin of 28.6%, which came down by around 380bp quarter-on-quarter largely as a result of higher allocated overhead costs resulting from lower production volumes in the period.
Adjusted EBITDA of US$11.7 million was lower than consensus expectations of over US$15.0 million but Canaccord noted that excluding US$3.1 million in international cannabis returns, it would have been US$14.8 million, up US$3.1 million on the previous quarter.
Looking ahead, Tilray reiterated its expectations of achieving fiscal year 2023 adjusted EBITDA of between US$70 million and US$80 million, the broker noted.
On valuation, analysts used a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) analysis with discount rates ranging from 12% to 17%.
After making further downward revisions to fiscal year 2023 estimates and upping the average SOTP discount rate by 200bp given the lower prospect of near-term US optionality Canaccord arrived at the reduced price target of US$5.
The Buy rating helped support the stock today which rose 0.54% to US$2.78 recovering some of Monday’s losses which followed the release of the results.
Contact the author at jeremy@proactiveinvestors.com