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The Markets
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The Markets
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The Markets
by Proactive
Proactive UK has moved.
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Retail

Can updates from Barratt, Persimmon and others rebuild sector confidence in coming week?

A gang of housebuilders are pencilled in for trading updates in the coming week, three of which are FTSE 100 companies and two are mid-sized.

The sector has subsided badly under the tower of investor concerns about higher interest rates, lower mortgage availability, the end of Help to Buy and sagging consumer sentiment, twinned with rising industry costs and planning logjams (though some of the more optimistic analysts see this as a buying opportunity).

With its shares down over 40% in the past year, Barratt Developments PLC will be the first of the blue-chip builders to report and set the tone, which has been pretty melancholy since its last update in October that flagged a big drop in the number of housing reservations.

Net reservations per outlet per week plummeted from 0.85 a year earlier to 0.55, the lowest since 2012 (the year before the introduction of Help to Buy), with management also estimating cost inputs will rise 9-10% for the year to June.

There will be some focus on completed sales and house prices in this week's update, with management's guidance of 45% of completions falling in the first half to December, with the first quarter seeing a 2.5% year-on-year decline but the target for the full year being for 3-5% growth to around 18,600 completions.

"Management noted it was comfortable with the consensus estimate at the first-quarter stage, although analysts and investors will also look out for any further comment on cladding remediation costs and the troubled Croydon Cityscape project, which could yet impact the stated pre-tax figure," analysts at AJ Bell said, with Barratt having so far set aside £580mln for it.

On Thursday, it will be the turn of Persimmon PLC, which delivered a very gloomy report back in November, though the shares have been flat since then.

It revealed a slower pace of reservations at their development sites as consumers paused to work out how rising interest rates and the rapidly increasing cost of living would impact them.

Management felt unable to provide guidance for 2023 given uncertain market conditions and the tightening of dividend policy will leave investors nervously awaiting any further comments, said Steve Clayton, a fund manager at Hargreaves Lansdown.

"But markets of course tend to price-in expectations and these challenges are already clear. So how the stock moves on the day will be very dependent on the mood music surrounding the data. If the company can show confidence in maintaining their margins, then that news could be well received."

On Friday 13th, Taylor Wimpey PLC (LSE:TW.) investors will be hoping to avoid horrorshow numbers.

In early November, the group said it remained on track to deliver full-year operating profits in line with market expectations despite a rise in cancellation rates and a drop in sales, with its update viewed in a more positive light by City analysts coming a day after the more downbeat statement from Persimmon.

The main contrast with Persimmon was that TW made no hints about having to rebase the dividend, "although that may still come as the group looks to lay the foundations for a recovery when the housing and mortgage markets stabilise", said the AJ Bell scribes.

Ireland-based Cairn Homes plc (LSE:CRN), which starts the week's sector reports has been an outlier.

Back in September, it pledged "significant shareholder returns" in the coming years after saying first-half profits more than tripled, following its best-ever sales performance and said it expects demand for its new homes to remain high into 2023.

Its share price decline of 17% compares to over 50% for Persimmon, and near 40% for Barratt and Taylor Wimpey.

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