Video commentary for January 5th 2023
A link to today's video commentary is posted in the Subscriber's Area.
Some of the topics discussed include: Nasdaq-100 extends decline led by cloud services, dollar steady, bonds yields fail to hold advance, gold eases and silver working on a downside weekly key reversal, China extends rebound and related markets benefit. Mexico testing the upper side of a seven-year base.
Byron and Joe's Ten Surprises of 2023
Thanks to a subscriber for this note which may be of interest. Here is a section:
2. The Federal Reserve remains in a tug-of-war with inflation, so it puts the word “pivot” on the shelf alongside the word “transitory.” The fed funds rate moves above the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index and real interest rates turn positive, a rare phenomenon relative to the last decade.
3. While the Fed is successful in dampening inflation, it over-stays its time in restrictive territory. Margins are squeezed in a mild recession.
4. Despite Fed tightening, the market reaches a bottom by mid-year and begins a recovery comparable to 2009.
5. Every significant correction in the market has in the past been accompanied by a financial “accident.” Cryptocurrencies had a major correction and that proved not to be a systemic event. This time, Modern Monetary Theory is fully discredited because deficits have proven to be inflationary.
Eoin Treacy's view - I liked these surprises for the coming year better when they were more risqué. I think the above four are close to consensus. The Fed has no reason to cut rates and will not do so until they have one. That implies significantly higher unemployment.
Here are some alternative surprises:
This section continues in the Subscriber's Area.
Email of the day on cloud computing
At the risk of representing a bottom, my hat's off to you Eoin for your call on the cloud. A year ago I remember being in a Covid tent with an investor and you had just laid out the case for the cloud glut. Roll tape on all these guys with buys a year ago including Cramer.
Eoin Treacy's view - Thank you for this kind email. Back when I put the list of Autonomies together in 2012, the one share people asked me about more than any other was Salesforce. It did not have the big global sales footprint of the other companies. I included it anyway because I thought it would, and wanted to have some forward-looking constituents. Cloud computing subsequently went on to prosper beyond most people’s expectations.
This section continues in the Subscriber's Area.
Travel Schedule - Future Minerals Forum 2023
I have accepted the Saudi Arabian government's invitiation to attend the Future Minerals Forum again this year. I am due to fly out Monday evening and will arrive in Riyadh on Tuesday evening with a stop in Frankfurt along the way. I expect to be back in Dallas Friday afternoon. I expect to keep up with the publishing schedule but the time I post articles will be affected by travel.
At present, I have meetings arranged with the CEOs of Polymetal, Alien Metals, Perseus Mining, Pyx Resources, Aurora Minerals Group, Silver X Mining, Goviex Uranium, Kuya Silver, Esper Satellite Imagery, Saudi Gold Refinery with more to come. If subscribers have any questions they would like me to ask just let me know.
Eoin's personal portfolio: stock market index positions closed at profit and shorts opened December 6th 2022
One of the questions subscribers ask most often is how to find details of my open trades. To make it easier I will simply repost the latest summary on a daily basis until there is a change.