SP Angel . Morning View . Wednesday 04 01 23
Gold climbs as weak economic data signal recession and easier Fed stance
MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below
First Quantum Minerals (TSX:FQM) – FQM and Panamanian officials’ dispute over Cobre Panama intensifies as lawmakers summon ministers
Nexa Resources (NYSE: NEXA) - Nexa Resources suspends production at Peruvian zinc mine following protests
Phoenix Copper Ltd (AIM:PXC, OTCQX:PXCLF)* – Latest results from metallurgical drilling programme at the Empire mine, Idaho
Piedmont Lithium Inc (ASX:PLL, NASDAQ:PLL, XETRA:) – Amended offtake with Tesla
Gold hits 7-month high on bets upcoming jobs data will signal recession and easier Fed stance
- Gold pushed through $1,863/oz this morning, up 14% from early November lows, now up 2.6% over the past 12 months.
- A combination of safe haven demand and bets on more accommodative Fed policy may be driving demand for bullion.
- Despite gold’s rapid rise over the past month, gold ETFs have actually sold bullion, suggesting funds are inflowing from either central banks or algorithmic traders.
- The dollar, which was one of gold’s primary tailwinds in Q4-2022, has held its lower levels against a basket of currencies.
- Traders may be betting on US jobs data due this week providing signs of easing wage pressure, with the US’ hot labour market a primary driver of current inflation and enabling Powell’s stratospheric rate increases last year.
- US 10-year yields have failed to sustain their rally through December, easing 20bp since the turn of the new year. Higher yields pressure gold prices.
Copper flatlines as traders weigh up growth outlook from China and the US
- Prices for copper have fallen to around the $8,315/t mark as weaker demand outlook weighs on prices.
- China’s ability to deal with Covid, rising expectations of a US recession and bullish hopes of an easing of US interest rates are muddying the near term picture for copper.
- Copper inventories rose 13% since the turn of the year, having hovered at 2008 lows towards the end of December.
- Global inventories have now fallen 79% from highs reached in 2018.
- Copper futures remain in contango, suggesting more buoyant short-term supply. However, this has tightened towards the end of December.
- Copper cathode premiums in China have fallen 75% since November as Chinese factories struggle with productivity amid raging Covid cases.
Iron ore ticks higher as China pledges further support for ‘Too-Big-to-Fail’ property developers
- Iron ore prices have ticked higher to $117/t on additional efforts to shore up the Country’s property sector.
- China’s Financial Stability and Development Committee has advised banking regulators to provide liquidity support for ‘systemically important’ developers. (Bloomberg)
- Regulators will require ‘unqualified’ auditing reviews for the list as the government moves to shore up balance sheets of the Country’s major developers.
- Home sales for China’s top 100 real estate developers fell 30.8% in December yoy, having fallen 25.5% in November.
- Additional support may come in the form of equity financing or loans, and analysts expect potential REITs and Acquisitions from the new financing.
- Stimulus measures from Beijing have now boosted a Bloomberg index of property Chinese developers by 69% since the beginning of November, up 5.4% on yesterday’s news.
- The Government also resumed approvals for private equity fund raisings for residential property, to encourage additional inflows to the sector.
- Inflows to private equity fund products in China fell $63.7bn in 2021.
- Demand for Chinese housing, however, is expected to have peaked for the time being.
- Analysts for the Bank of China International forecast demand for new housing to hit 1.2bn sqm annualised over the next decade, vs 1.5bn sqm between 2018-2021.
- Beijing continues to move towards incremental nationalisation of Chinese property, with the sector’s market share owned by private developers falling from 70% in 2020 to what analysts forecast to be between 10-20% in 2025.
China’s CATL takes global top EV battery spot with 37% of global sales
- CATL sold a total of 165.7GWh worth of batteries between Jan-Nov 2022, 3x the second placed BYD.
- CATL now occupies a 37% market share of the global EV battery market. (SNE Research)
- Total EV battery sales in November climbed 70% globally yoy, with China a primary driver of growth.
Dow Jones Industrials -0.03% at 33,136
Nikkei 225 -1.45% at 25,717
HK Hang Seng +3.22% at 20,793
Shanghai Composite +0.22% at 3,124
Economics
World Bank increases lending capacity as its mission changes to fight climate change
- The World Bank team aim to alter its mission and increase its financing capacity and mission in negotiations starting in April
- World Bank management plan to put specific proposals to change its mission, operating model and financial capacity to joint World Bank and IMF Development Committee for approval in October.
- The idea is for the World Bank to oversee a global shift towards better food security, clean energy and the reduction of carbon emissions.
- The IBRD ‘International Bank for Reconstruction and Development’ had a $13bn capital increase in to tackle a mid-sized crisis once a decade but not multiple, overlapping crises as seen with Covid, Ukraine and weather related crises.
US – Final manufacturing PMI numbers confirmed that US industrial sector is contracting at the fastest pace since May 2020, according to S&P Global data.
- New orders reported one of the fastest declines on record (since May 2007) on the back of weaker local and overseas demand.
- Weaker demand was predominantly driven by uncertain economic outlook and high inflationary pressures weighing on consumer sentiment.
- Output dropped at the quickest pace in just over two-and-a-half years.
- Unemployment gained but only marginally, while inflation is reported to have eased back.
- S&P Global Manufacturing PMI: 46.2 v 47.7 November.
US Quake Prediction warns of potential strong earthquake from San Francisco to LA
- Quake Prediction, which works on predicting earthquakes has issued a ‘Dangerous situation’ warning that a 7.0 earthquake is likely in the San Francisco Bay area.
- They say a huge quake signal just hit California indicating potential for a massive earthquake.
- Interestingly, when you scroll back through the Quake Prediction twitter feed the group has been warning of a strong earthquake in California ever since this time last year.
China – China’s top economic planner and senior economic official says expansion of consumption will be a priority (SCMP)
Expansion of China’s ‘Dual Circulation’ strategy to expand consumption is increasingly necessary to support factories as Western orders fall
- The official from the NDRC said the authorities would align fiscal, monetary, industrial, technology and social policies to promote growth in an interview in the Peoples Daily.
- The government would also give support to previously tightly regulated sectors such as property and internet companies as part of a wider push to increase consumer spending.
- property and internet companies will get support, as will shopping centres
- We must make the recovery and expansion of consumption a priority, and use government investment and incentives to drive up social investment
- “Inadequate overall demand is the main factor holding back the economy,” according to Chenxin
- Consumer spending accounted for around two-thirds of economic growth in 2021 but only 41.3% in the first nine-months of 2022.
- Chinese companies depress property values as redundancies hit market
- Redundancies at major Chinese employers are said to be having dramatic impact on property prices in Yuhang, Hangzhou and Nanshan, Shenzhen
- Job uncertainty has caused the proportion of Chinese people wanting to buy a home to fall by 10% to 16.1% in Q4
- Foxconn says iPhone plant is close to full capacity
- “Production has almost fully resumed,” according to one source (Reuters)
- The plant’s workforce is reported to be stable at 200,000 staff with stabilised supplies brining production back towards capacity
- Hearses line up at Crematoria as Covid fatalities overwhelm funeral system
South Korea fines Tesla $2.2m for exaggerating driving ranges of EVs
- South Korea's antitrust regulator is to impose a 2.85 billion won ($2.2m fine) on Tesla for failing to tell its customers about the shorter driving range of its EVs in low temperatures.
- According to the Korea Fair Trade Commission, the driving range of Tesla cars plunge in cold weather by up to 50.5% versus how they are advertised online.
- A survey in 2021 by a South Korean consumer group said the driving range of most EVs drop by up to 40% in cold temperatures when batteries need to be heated, with Tesla suffering the most.
Germany – In a welcome news for the ECB, inflation slowed more than expected in December hitting the lowest level since August.
- Although, lower pace of consumer prices growth is attributed to the government paying some households’ gas bills for the month.
- CPI (%yoy): 8.6 v 10.0 November and 9.0 est.
France – Inflation rate pulled back in December beating expectations and adding to signs of easing price pressure in the Eurozone.
- Estimates were for inflation to pick up on the back of the government starting to phase out fuel discounts.
- Warmer weather have also contributed to the slowdown as lower demand see energy prices coming down.
- CPI (%yoy): 6.7 v 7.1 November and 7.3 est.
UK – Food inflation continued to rise hitting 13.3% in December adding further pressure on consumers.
- That was up on 12.4% recorded in the previous month and the highest reading since records began in 2005.
Australia – The nation is expecting a “substantial impact” on global supply chains from increasing number of Covid cases in China, Treasurer Jim Chalmers said.
- China is the Australia’s biggest trading partner making Australia one of the world’s most China exposed developed economies.
- Commenting on outlook, Treasurer named a continuing war in Ukraine, fears over a world recession led by the US, rising interest rates at home and abroad as well as extreme weather events among other risks to growth in 2023.
SPAC – Former CFO for SPAC admits embezzling $5m from SPAC to trade meme stocks and cryptocurrencies (Reuters)
- Cooper Morgenthau of Florida has admitted to one count of wire fraud and to forfeit $5.11m and pay an equal amount in restitution and settle related civil charges by the SEC.
- Morgenthau stole >$1.2m from African Gold Acquisition Corp, and then falsified its accounts. The money was spent or lost in securities trading.
- Morgenthau then raised $4.7m in the Strategic Metals (TSX-V:SMD) Acquisition Corp, SPAC loosing most of it through crypto trading according to the SEC.
Ecuador – President claims negotiations with China on FTA bilateral free-trade deal are practically closed
- Deal plans to boost value of Ecuadorean exports to China to US$1bn enabling Chinese companies access to raw materials.
- China agreed to restructure US$4.4bn of debt owed by Ecuador to China, providing relief of $1 billion until 2025.
- Ecuador exports to China rose to >US$6.2bn between January and November vs Chinese exports to Ecuador of US$5.8bn.
Currencies
US$1.0627/eur vs 1.0529/eur yesterday. Yen 130.05/$ vs 130.74/$. SAr 16.809/$ vs 17.120/$. $1.208/gbp vs $1.193/gbp. 0.688/aud vs 0.670/aud. CNY 6.882/$ vs 6.912/$.
Dollar Index: 103.96 vs 104.82 yesterday.
Commodity News
Precious metals:
Gold US$1,863/oz vs US$1,833/oz yesterday
Gold ETFs 94.1moz vs US$94.1moz yesterday
Platinum US$1,097/oz vs US$1,075/oz yesterday
Palladium US$1,735/oz vs US$1,788/oz yesterday
Silver US$24.30/oz vs US$24.26/oz yesterday
Rhodium US$12,250/oz vs US$12,250/oz yesterday
Base metals:
Copper US$ 8,378/t vs US$8,410/t yesterday
Aluminium US$ 2,317/t vs US$2,357/t yesterday
Nickel US$ 30,610/t vs US$31,065/t yesterday
Zinc US$ 2,953/t vs US$2,977/t yesterday
Lead US$ 2,266/t vs US$2,273/t yesterday
Tin US$ 25,515/t vs US$25,000/t yesterday
Energy:
Oil US$80.6/bbl vs US$85.0/bbl yesterday
- Crude oil prices slumped as early optimism on China’s loosening of Covid rules boosting demand were extinguished by weak equity markets and a strengthening dollar.
- European energy prices continue to fall driven by unseasonably warm temperatures on the Continent and strong wind power generation.
Natural Gas US$3.948/mmbtu vs US$4.064/mmbtu yesterday
Uranium UXC US$48.70/lb vs US$48.85/lb yesterday
Bulk:
Iron ore 62% Fe spot (cfr Tianjin) US$117.1/t vs US$117.1/t
Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$603.2/t vs US$600.2/t
Thermal coal (1st year forward cif ARA) US$225.0/t vs US$225.0/t
Thermal coal swap Australia FOB US$360.5/t vs US$389.5/t
Coking coal swap Australia FOB US$291.0/t vs US$291.0/t
Other:
Cobalt LME 3m US$50,455/t vs US$51,955/t
NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$103,508/t vs US$103,091/t
Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$68,642/t vs US$68,655/t
China Spodumene Li2O 5%min CIF US$5,990/t vs US$6,010/t
Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,311/t vs US$1,300/t
China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$320/mtu vs US$320/mtu
China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$880/t vs US$880/t
Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% 8.9/lb vs US$8.9/lb
Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% 36.75/kg vs US$36.75/kg
China Ilmenite Concentrate TiO2 US$333/t vs US$329/t
Spot CO2 Emissions EUA Price US$85.5/t vs US$86.4/t
Brazil Potash CFR Granular Spot US$500.0/t vs US$500.0/t
Green News
Norwegian green steel firm Blastr plans €4bn investment in Finish low-carbon plant
- Norway’s Blastr plans to invest €4bn in green steel plant, signing a letter of intent with Fortum Oyj on the Country’s south coast.
- The factory will produce 2.5mt of hot and cold-rolled green steel.
- The plant will utilise local wind power facilities.
- Blastr has entered into a Letter of Intent with Nordic energy company Fortum that provides Blastr exclusive rights to utilize an existing industrial site located in Inkoo.
- The plant is expected to create up to 1,200 direct jobs in the operations phase and production is planned to start by the end of 2026.
- The plant and integrated hydrogen facility has the potential to be among the largest industrial investments planned in Finland to date.
- Green Steel uses hydrogen to reduce the iron pellets into sponge iron, metallic iron that can then be processed to form steel.
- The steel industry produces about 8% of the world’s CO₂ emissions due to the high amount of fossil fuels used to manufacture steel through conventional methods.
- A more advanced green steel project is H2 Green Steel, who raised €260m to build a green hydrogen-powered steel plant in northern Sweden.
- H2 aim to start production in the second half of 2025 and have a target of producing 5mtpa by 2030.
- For the EAF process to work at an optimum level, a high-quality iron ore concentrate feedstock is required with low levels of impurities.
- Beowulf Mining PLC (AIM:BEM)* is currently developing its Kallak magnetite project in northern Sweden – which hosts a particularly clean concentrate that should enable steel makers to reduce carbon emissions, improve energy efficiency and reduce waste leading to cleaner and greener steel production.
- The project is also ~120km southwest of the giant Kiruna iron ore mine which LKAB claims to be the first source of green iron in the Europe.
- We see Beowulf as perfectly positioned to service the Swedish Green steel industry given the high-quality magnetite product and close location to H2’s facilities which reduces the overall scope 3 emissions for H2.
*SP Angel acts as nomad and broker to Beowulf Mining
Company News
First Quantum Minerals (TSX:FQM) C$28.13, Mkt Cap C$19.5bn – FQM and Panamanian officials’ dispute over Cobre Panama intensifies as lawmakers summon ministers
- Stakes have been raised following FQM’s CEO Pascall’s failed attempts to meet an agreement with government officials over Christmas regarding the Cobre Panama mine.
- Reuters reports FQM has demanded exclusive rights for additional mineral exploration rights, concession enlargements, $1bn worth of tax credits for its investment were several of the issues raised over talks.
- President Cortizo states a final contract has been presented to the country.
- Lawmakers yesterday summoned ministers to clarify concerns over permitting, royalties, sanctions, and the state of the new contract.
Nexa Resources (NYSE: NEXA) US$5.7, Mkt Cap US$760m - Nexa Resources suspends production at Peruvian zinc mine following protests
- Nexa reports that production at the Atacocha San Gerardo open pit mine is temporarily suspended following an illegal roadblock by the Machcan community.
- The news follows an update from the company in March 2022 that operations at Atacocha San Gerardo resumed following a road block.
- Production loss from that particular blockade was forecast at 300t of zinc.
- Nexa say that Atacocha produces less than 3% of the company's overall zinc production.
- The news follows a long running altercation between MMG and local indigenous groups to the Las Bambas Mine in Peru since 2016.
- Las Bambas is the 3rd largest copper mine in Peru, and accounts for 1.4% of the world’s production when fully operational.
- Given the protests the mine has been forced to store semi-processed material on-site, with 500,000t of concentrate currently in stockpiles.
Phoenix Copper Ltd (AIM:PXC, OTCQX:PXCLF)* 27p, Mkt Cap £33.7m – Latest results from metallurgical drilling programme at the Empire mine, Idaho
(Phoenix holds 80% of the Empire mining property in Idaho)
- Phoenix Copper has released results from the fourth and fifth holes of its 1,500m metallurgical core-drilling programme at the Empire open-pit copper project in Idaho following the release of data from the initial three holes in November.
- The company confirms that during 2022 it completed 1,077m of the programme which started in early June with the main purpose of retrieving samples for “further metallurgical testing, geotechnical studies, and geological modelling”.
- CEO, Ryan McDermott, explained that the “metallurgical testing program is progressing as planned; however, assay results are taking longer than originally anticipated due to laboratory backlog”.
- Among the results highlighted in today’s announcement are:
- An 11m wide intersection, from surface, in hole KXD22-04 which averaged 1.59% copper, 45.60g/t silver and 0.37% zinc; and
- A 17.70m wide intersection from a depth of 22.60m in hole KXD22-05 at an average grade of 0.59% copper, 20.10g/t silver and 0.39% zinc
- The broader intersections in each hole contain higher grade sections with a 5.20m wide zone in the upper part of hole KXD22-04 averaging 2.00% copper and 56.30g/t silver and 1.60% zinc from surface overlying a lower grade interval of 4.60m to a depth of 9.80m and a deeper, higher grade section of 1.20m at an average grade of 5.19% copper, 149g/t silver and 1.1.61% zinc between 9.80m and 11.00m depth.
- The intersection in hole KXD22-05 contains a gold enriched section of 1.20m between 29.30m and 30.5m which averages 7.43g/t gold, 10.5g/t silver as well as a 3.40m wide interval at an average grade of 1.98% copper, 0.32g/t gold, 60.30g/t silver and 0.90% zinc from a depth of 35.40m.
- Mr. McDermott explained that the metallurgical testing will continue investigations of the use of “ammonium thiosulfate as a recovery agent for copper, gold, and silver, which may enable us to bring forward production of gold and silver, currently scheduled as a second phase of the Empire Open Pit project”.
- He also emphasised that “the intercepts in the first five holes of the program meet the ore type-grade-interval length necessary for the metallurgical test work currently being undertaken”.
- Phoenix Copper has previously identified the use of ammonium thiosulphate as an environmentally benign reagent for the recovery of precious metals with recovery rates comparable to those achieved using more widely recognised cyanidation methods.
- In our opinion, if the current testing is successful in establishing a process route which can recover the precious metals earlier than currently planned it should enhance the project economics which, in a February 2021 update, Phoenix Copper reported as delivering a pre-tax NPV7.5% of US$105m and IRR of 57% from an initial pre-production capital investment of US$52.6m to produce an average of 8,550tpa of copper, 1,970tpa of zinc, 17,235oz pa of gold and 680,050oz pa of silver at a life-of mine copper equivalent cash cost of US$1.83/lb over a 10 year long production life.
- The 2021 economic update used commodity prices of US$3.60/lb for copper, US$1.20/lb for zinc, US$1,825/oz for gold and US$27/oz for silver which, with the exception of silver which is currently around US$24.50/oz, are all below current levels of around US$3.80/lb for copper, US$1,840/oz for gold and US$1.35/b for zinc.
Conclusion: The latest results from Phoenix Copper’s metallurgical drilling at the Empire open-pit copper project provide additional sample material for the continuing test programme investigating the use of ammonium thiosulphate as a reagent to recover precious metals which, if successful, could facilitate precious metals recovery earlier in the mine’s life than previously envisaged potentially enhancing the project’s economics. The planned 1,500m programme is now around 70% complete and we await further drilling and metallurgical results with interest.
*SP Angel acts as nomad to Phoenix Copper
Piedmont Lithium Inc (ASX:PLL, NASDAQ:PLL, XETRA:) $42.8, Mkt cap $771m – Amended offtake with Tesla
- Piedmont and Tesla have mutually agreed to amend their previous offtake agreement which are binding for three years and include an option to renew for another three years.
- Piedmont has agreed to deliver approximately 125,000 metric tons of SC6 to Tesla beginning in H2 2023 through the end of 2025.
- Pricing of SC6 will be determined by a formula-based mechanism linked to average market prices for lithium hydroxide throughout the term of the agreement.
- Feed will come from North American Lithium where production is expected to restart in the first half of this year from the company’s joint venture with Sayona Quebec which entitles Piedmont to purchase the greater of 113,000tpa or 50% of SC6 production.
- The prior pact between Piedmont and Tesla was announced more than two years ago, meaning Tesla are now going to be paying more for their lithium.
No.1 in Copper: “The winner of the 2020 Fastmarkets Apex contest for copper was the team at SP Angel comprising John Meyer, Sergey Raevskiy and Simon Beardsmore, with an accuracy score of 93.8%”
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The SP Angel team also ranked 1st in Palladium, 3rd in Tin and 5th in Silver in the fourth quarter of 2020
Analysts
John Meyer – John.Meyer@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0490
Simon Beardsmore – Simon.Beardsmore@spangel.co.uk – 0203 470 0484
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Sales
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*SP Angel are the No1 integrated nomad and broker by number of mining brokerage clients on AIM according to the AIM Advisers Ranking Guide (joint brokerships excluded)
+SP Angel employees may have previously held, or currently hold, shares in the companies mentioned in this note.
Sources of commodity prices
Gold, Platinum, Palladium, Silver - BGNL (Bloomberg Generic Composite rate, London)
Gold ETFs, Steel - Bloomberg
Copper, Aluminium, Nickel, Zinc, Lead, Tin, Cobalt - LME
Oil Brent - ICE
Natural Gas, Uranium, Iron Ore - NYMEX
Thermal Coal - Bloomberg OTC Composite
Coking Coal - SSY
RRE - Steelhome
Lithium Carbonate, Ferro Vanadium, Tungsten, Spodumene, Ferro-Manganese, Graphite - Asian Metal
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