Comment of the Day
Video commentary for December 20th 2022
A link to today's video commentary is posted in the Subscriber's Area.
Bank of Japan Decision Will Affect the World
This article from Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:
The BOJ has been the last holdout on negative rates, so these tentative signs that it might be buckling will heighten expectations we may be in for more unsettling volatility in 2023. Markets really don't like uncertainty, and even a suggestion that Japan might be forced into letting bond yields soar higher is enough to get risk managers heading for the exit. Fixed income isn’t quite the haven some commentators had convinced themselves it might be in the new year.
BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda was at pains to downplay any implications for official rates, but this sudden move after implacable denials speaks louder. The BOJ did increase its QE bond buying ammunition to 9 trillion yen ($68 billion) per month from 7.3 trillion yen — all to defend its new line in the sand, the 0.5% 10-year yield. But this is merely a symbolic delaying tactic. Kuroda steps down in April, so Tuesday’s decision increases the expectation that his replacement will usher in further monetary tightening. This is no longer an impenetrable negative interest rate fortress. It might make foreign speculators meditate on the perils of shorting both Japanese government bonds and the yen simultaneously.
Eoin Treacy's view - Bull markets thrive on liquidity. The Bank of Japan’s efforts to depress the 10-year yield and devalue the Yen were a significant source of liquidity that is now dissipating. There has been scant evidence that the Yen carry trade has done anything to support markets over the last six months but the removal of support is certainly being felt.
Bitcoin Miner Greenidge Warns of Bankruptcy, Debt Restructuring
Greenidge’s average monthly cash burn rate in the past two months was approximately $8 million. That is typically used to describe the rate at which a company spends capital to finance overhead before generating a profit or loss from operations. About $5.5 million of that cost was associated with principal and interest payments to NYDIG. The firm expects to have a similar cash burn rate and similar payments to NYDIG in December, according to the filing.
The Fairfield, Connecticut-based miner has a natural gas plant that powers its Bitcoin mining facility in Dresden, New York. It is one of the earliest and largest crypto-mining firms in the state. While Greenidge’s current operations remain intact, New York Governor Kathy Hochul signed one of the most restrictive laws in the US on crypto mining last month with a two-year moratorium on new permits from the miners that are powered by fossil fuel.
Eoin Treacy's view - Bitcoin is a liquidity barometer. When prices multiply, the fear of missing out creates demand for leveraged plays on the price of both bitcoin and altcoins. It encourages miners to leverage up to increase their chances of securing additional coins and it attracts new funding mechanisms to ensure maximum leverage is made available to the most risk-tolerant traders as the promise of massive gains proves siren-like. During crypto winters, this entire process goes into reverse and many operations go bust.
How private markets became an escape from reality
Thanks to a subscriber for this article in the Financial Times. Here is a section:
Yet private equity funds raised more than $1tn last year, up a record 20 per cent, according to the most recent data. Investor Cliff Asness wrote recently of the “mind blowing” possibility that investors now knowingly accept lower returns “for the privilege of not being told the prices”.
Hiding from reality creates an illusion that private investments are less risky than their debts clearly demonstrate, which draws in more money, raising risk further. The moment of reckoning likely comes when and if the downturn drags on, and private markets have to finally reveal losses in a down market. The shock could trigger a stampede toward the exits. While some private managers will continue to provide long-term capital to help build companies, many others will be exposed as financial engineers who built careers on a thin foundation of easy money.
In the end, there will be nowhere to hide in a tight money era. And private markets, which largely built returns on heavy and loose borrowing, are more vulnerable than public markets in this new age.
Eoin Treacy's view - The credit crisis in 2007/08 was exacerbated by forced mark-to-market rules which automatically repriced assets based on a single trade at a lower level. Some of the reforms in place since then have curtailed that risk but do not protect values from a broad-side as commercial properties are handed back and business profits ebb in a recession.
Eoin's personal portfolio: stock market index positions closed at profit and shorts opened December 6th 2022
One of the questions subscribers ask most often is how to find details of my open trades. To make it easier I will simply repost the latest summary on a daily basis until there is a change.
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