Comment of the Day
Video commentary for December 19th 2022
A link to today's video commentary is posted in the Subscriber's Area.
Some of the topics discussed include: Dollar and yields steady, gold pauses, Wall Street remains weak and China rolling over as COVID cases rise.
Email of the day on holding cash
Good morning, Eoin I would welcome your perspective if I may. I have been long only forever, 40 years and counting. In view of the current global challenges, I am thinking of taking the remaining 60% (40% currently in cash or cash equivalents) off the table and holding all in cash for the time being. I would welcome any observations you may have. I look forward to hearing from you.
Eoin Treacy's view - Thank you for this important question which may be of interest to the Collective. The biggest argument for remaining long forever is the market always comes back…eventually. Being an investor requires an optimistic mindset. That means there is always a risk of selling too late. There is also the risk that the sectors which lead a recovery are not those you currently own.
National Bank of Canada (TSX:NA) Neutral On i-80 Gold's Assays From Hilltop Corridor Discovery
This article from MT Newswires may be of interest. Here it is in full
National Bank of Canada said Monday that it ascribed a neutral bias on i-80 Gold Corp. (IAU.TO)'s Hilltop corridor discovery at the Ruby Hill property that showed elevated zinc mineralization.
Drill highlights include 12.3% zinc over 39.6 meters, adding to the high-grade polymetallic discovery in the Hilltop zone announced in November.
The bank said the results were limited to a single hole although it reinforces Ruby Hill's optionality as well as potential host to oxide and sulfide gold as well as skarn base metal mineralization, all within proximity of the underground infrastructure planned in 2023.
"Results add a high-grade datapoint to the broader Hilltop area, while expanding the region of prospectivity, still open in all directions," the bank said.
National Bank gave i-80 an outperform rating with a $4.25 price target. Price: 3.58, Change: -0.18, Percent Change: -4.79
Eoin Treacy's view - I-80, named for the highway the mine sits near, has been reporting impressive drill results for over two years. The promise of a major new resource with easy access to transportation links, and in close proximity to established mines, suggests the aim of the management team is to be acquired.
Yen Traders' Nerves Jangle on Growing Signs of BOJ Hawkish Pivot
This article from Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:
The yen whipsawed in Monday trade after reports on a potential change to a key agreement between the government and central bank fueled speculation policy makers are moving closer to a hawkish pivot.
Japan’s currency jumped as much as 0.6% after Kyodo said on Saturday that Prime Minister Fumio Kishida may seek to revise a decade-old accord with the Bank of Japan and consider adding flexibility to the 2% inflation goal, potentially paving the way for an end to its ultra-dovish policy. The yen pared gains after a top government spokesman denied the report.
The existing agreement commits the government and the BOJ to achieving its 2% inflation goal as early as possible.
The BOJ has long since missed Kuroda’s original timeline of around two years. Still, removal of the phrase would go a step further in recognizing that achieving stable inflation is a longer term goal while implying that factors other than time also need to be considered.
Eoin Treacy's view - Japan has been trying to achieve its inflation target for a lot longer than two years. The challenge in the past was the global economy was going through a long-term disinflationary trend at the same time Japan was going through a deflating property bubble. Attempting to inflate while companies were moving jobs and manufacturing capacity offshore was a challenge. Today, the aging population and depressed consumer demand are headwinds to inflation.
Eoin's personal portfolio: stock market index positions closed at profit and shorts opened December 6th 2022
One of the questions subscribers ask most often is how to find details of my open trades. To make it easier I will simply repost the latest summary on a daily basis until there is a change.