UK pubs performed better in November than 2021, a latest CGA survey found, but a multitude of headwinds are expected to hit the sector in the New Year.
Like-for-like sales increased by 8.1% last month against a year ago and most likely due to the boost offered from England and Wales’s World Cup campaigns.
But trade bodies are warning that it is in from now and into January that conditions will really worsen.
“With restaurants and bars trading way behind the rate of inflation, consumer spending under strain and rail strikes threatening festive footfall, it will be a challenging December” said Karl Chessell, regional head of hospitality at CGA.
Inflation rose by 10.7% for the year to November slowing from 11.1% in October, the latest consumer price index from the Office for National Statistics found.
Alcohol price rises in pubs offset the deceleration slightly, whilst decreases in value for fuel and second hand cars appeared to help the slowing of inflation.
Gerwyn Evans, landlord of the Rising Sun in Wales, said owners are living in “a scary time”.
With the national living wage increasing and shortages of staff, pubs are also shutting earlier and opening less days in the week.
“Bookings look like they are ahead of 2019, having said that, the spending per head is down” added Clive Watson, chairman of City Pub.
The government currently provides 50% business rate relief for eligible businesses, but this will increase to 75% come April 2023 and end the year after.
All alcohol sold is still taxed at the standard VAT rate of 20%.