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VSA Capital Market Movers - Genus: AGM Statement

VSA Capital Market Movers - Genus: AGM Statement

Genus: AGM Statement

Genus (LON:GNS), the developer and marketer of animal breeding and genetic products for the porcine and bovine industries, has announced a trading update for the period 1 July to 14 November 2018, ahead of its AGM later today.

  • Continued good progress in Genus ABS (beef and dairy). Genus ABS revenue and adjusted operating profit higher YoY.
  • Genus PIC (porcine) volumes grew in North America, Latin America and Europe but the impact of African Swine Fever impacted Asian volumes. Genus PIC revenue and adjusted operating profit lower YoY.
  • Group adjusted PBT for the first four months of the year lower YoY.
  • Board expects to perform in-line with its growth expectations for FY 2019 (Y/E June 2019). FactSet consensus is currently revenues of £493.9m, +5% YoY and adjusted operating profit of £64.1m, +11%.

VSA Comment

GNS’s bovine division continues to build on its significant turnaround, which was originally evidenced in its H2 2017 results (CY H1 2017). However, focus this year will surely be more on its porcine division, where the spread of African Swine Fever (ASF) will continue to have an impact on the global pork market.

The 50th reported case of ASF in China was confirmed last Monday but the true scale of the issue is likely much larger. Approximately 45% of the Chinese pig herd is currently located in ASF states, with a further 53% in neighbouring states. Over the weekend, ASF was confirmed in animal feed produced by the Tangrenshen Group, confirming what many had suspected that the disease had entered the feed supply.

For GNS specifically, ASF is impacting the ability of Genus PIC to fulfil customer orders in the country due to restrictions on pig movements. The resulting lower Chinese pig prices (as farmers rush to slaughter animals before restrictions are put in place/forced slaughter occurs) will also impact market demand and share of profitability from its Besun JV (China sales typically make up around 10% of its total porcine division profit).

However, there are some positives for GNS from the outbreak. Over the longer-term it is likely to accelerate the modernisation and consolidation of the Chinese pig farming sector in a similar way to what has occurred in Russia since its own outbreak 10 years ago (although the Russian case does also demonstrate that this outbreak will likely not be over quickly). This will provide a longer-term benefit for GNS as larger customers are much more economic for the company. Pork imports should also increase from outside of China, which should benefit GNS’ customers in other regions.

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