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Anyone know where David Cameron is.....

Anyone know where David Cameron is.....

Anyone know where David Cameron is?? This is all his bloody fault.

It feels the markets are as bored of the Brexit bollocks as I am sure you and definitely I am.

I don't think any of us care anymore. In - out - shake it all about can we just make a decision, get it done and move on?

It is driving all us traders/investors barmy. Can someone make a firm decision - all we want to know is what's happening and stop the limbo. Businesses are fuming and rightly so.

All these mad ego driven politicians are causing us so many problems. There is little doubt even a piss up in a brewery could not be arranged. (Unless it took five years and 200 votes to get the event underday).

Markets are in the dumps right now. It isn't just Brexit.. it's trouble in the US, China.. maybe Germany and Italy and possible recession on the cards.

So it's tricky times. And some fear coming in.

Though I have seen a number of times buying on fear can work.

If in the next couple of weeks a no deal can be avoided we could see a market relief rally. And anyone buying this week could be rewarded!

My strategy has continued to be to stay in a pile of cash and keep that on the sidelines and I have added to it. But also to keep an open mind and if there is a decent bargain, maybe pick it up.

Two seminars threw up a number of trade ideas. Lots actually of which I can only cover some here.

I'm afraid this is due to "how much time do I want to give this website when I love doing other things". Because if I put a trade up here I have to remember I did, try and follow it through and make comments. All of which takes time. Then the emails to answer et all.

A lot of the ideas are "future" trades, waiting on prices to come down for the perfect buy.

One thing kept coming up at the first seminar when we were searching for new trades. Shares with net cash are going well and are being marked up.

Shares with big net debt are being marked down.

My suggestion in an uncertain market is - go through your portfolio and axe anything with big debt that isn't backed by assets. (An example Cineworld and ETO have big debt but are backed with assets).

It is definitely worth having some cash sitting there too. Then if the worst happens you've got buying power to try and pick the worst fear point to buy.

I have added more to the cash pile with some topslicing (selling some rather than all of something). I was targetting things that have done well and just banking some of the profits for the time being.

Onto some trades then.

I picked up some OMG. At the very least, if it falls, you can cry: "OMG, OMG".

A very high quality company in a decent area of the market - it develops and markets analytics software for motion measurement in over 70 countries.

Profits are booming here and taking Brexit aside, looks a great longer-term investment and has held steady against recent falls. It also has a net cash pile.

You have to pay for the quality but I was fine stumping up at a pe of over 20. If it carries on performing the shares could head over 100 and higher.
Obviously it won't be immune from a no deal so stop in place.

SimplyBiz (LON:SBIZ) kept coming up on my radar and indeed I put a few orders on it live at Monday's seminar. I was pretty close to getting the "sell" price on DMA but not quite and ended up paying the buy price, drat.
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Worth it though in the future perhaps. It provides business support and financial market services to IFAs and the like.

This one looks quite exciting now. First off was a licence agreement with Aviva after some good results.

Then came an acquisition of Fintech platform owner Dafaqto for £74m - after completion Defaqto (a massive tech business) will still have £3.4m cash.

Sbiz raised a lot of money easily for the buy but will have debt afterwards.

It just looks a like a superb buy for Sbiz which will enhance earnings quickly and grow the business emormously.

At this price it looks like a great Isa tuckaway for a couple of years.


I picked up some more Hollywood Bowl (LON:BOWL) live at a seminar getting the sell price on DMA.(Come to a seminar and I will teach you how to do it!)

Buying at the sell price is always great as you start a trade at breakeven by paying no spread. Also makes it easier to get out fast at a small loss if it starts to tank.

Also picked up some more in rival Ten Entertainment (LON:TEG). Bowling alleys are hot! On two visits my local was jammed packed with people bowling, buying crap food at high prices and playing the arcades. My son's school took them bowling last week!

As mentioned above I've added some more cash and done quite a few topslices and the odd total sale.

A market observation in current conditions is even if a company reports great results expect it to fall (sometimes heavily) on results day, and probably in the days after. Then it picks up and heads back up.

So if you made a few quid on something a strategy could be to sell some the day before results, then buy them back a few days later!

A recent example is Sopheon - (SPE) I sold about half the day before results (banks a profit of £4,340  for the website) but bought some back a couple of days later.

We watched supply and demand at the follow up seminar on this one as it turned back up. Nice results but it doesn't matter as people profit take, and as a share price marches down, stops get hit - market makers get hit by a wave of computerised selling.

This is happening across the board. Once a share starts falling in the current climate the selling (fear?) creates an eventual buying opportunity in the oversold weakness. But Sopheon now looks in super value territory again at under a tenner. The spread always looks wide but you can usually buy well inside it no problem.

XP Power (LON:XPP) came up with a very nice statement and looks a great turnaround story and I bought some more after the initial buys I reported last time.

A quite bullish statement and it looks on the turn after its previous falls. Could easily turn a lot higher if Brexit sorts itself out.

I shorted Britvic (LON:BVIC) - this one's had a very good run but I think the fizz could easily come out of these shares.

It has a lot of rivals these days including fevertree and it doesn't seem to be making much headway in the premium market.

However to be on the safe side a guaranteed stop looks to be worth it here just in case someone like coke makes a bid.

It became pretty obvious to quit IG (LON:IG) as close to results, guess what? The shares started to tumble. I made a mistake here, I was on my Spanish travels when share hit my target around 600 and I never took the profits! I got a profit of £280 but only at 575. Probably the shares are priced about right after the statement. Kape shares have been a bit disappointing. The statement was ok but I sold for a small profit of £150. I might get back in but it needs to work out what to do with the cash.

NMC (LON:NMC)  went way over target and I sold the recent trade for a profit of £358. It has slipped since then and might be looking value. K3 had a topslice - It has been hit on Brexit worries (less activity) but priced already as if there has been a profit warning it looks value now and time to eye up buying again. It looks like brilliant value now. Profit £1,055. Also topsliced is Future (half sold) for a profit of £3,655. Very nice double so worthy of a slice. I top sliced some AB after some great rises to bank a profit of £3,916. CC yielded £350. 

Sync went for profit of £402 and a small topslice of Cine for a profit of £570.. Two old trades in GVC (LON:GVC) went after a big director sell off for a loss of £690 and profit £1,870. Tried a small bounceback spreadbet on it
but that failed so waiting for the turnround which could come soon. And a topslice for some old APH trades for a profit of £2,250. The boredom overwhelmed.

All of which raises my cash balance again and profit banked for the site are £18,506.

I wish you all the best of luck with your trading at the mo. If it makes you feel tired and irritable, perhaps you find yourself being horrible to people you don't know on bulletin boards, or you are blaming everyone else for losses or Brexit, Neil Woodford, insider traders, Trump, May, the weather, the bloke in the pub, or it affects you or you don't feel good about yourself, stop for a bit!

It's only money. As long as you can afford to lose a bit it won't matter to your life longer-term. If you are worried it could be you have too much in, or you gambling too heavily or not using stops or hiding behind the sofa which reminds me behind there needs a good hoovering. Dysoning now?

Chill out, enjoy the spring - be nice to people, be positive, try and love everyone (even grumpy old gits). The more I live the more I try and love people. Even the really shitty ones. Though it is a stretch sometimes. Love you lots!

 

Nakedtrader  was created after I left my full-time job as a finance editor for BskyB to trade full-time. I had been writing an diary page for its teletext service since 1998 and decided as I was leaving to transfer that to the internet.
 
These articles are simply a "diary" of my life, or what you would now call a "blog". I detail what I've bought, sold or shorted and briefly why. I use various spreadbetting companies and stockbrokers to carry out the trades. I ignore commission but also dividends and I reckon the two balance each other up.
 
So you should be aware this is not a "tipping" site and I do not consider myself, nor do I want to be, a "tipster". In other words tipsters will urge you to "buy" something - and they generally are regulated to do so by the FSA. I simply state I have already bought or sold something personally. Because of that I am not "regulated" - so I am not an authorised "tipster". I am simply a trader who states his positions.
 
That is quite a big difference. I am not allowed to give what is called "Individual investment advice". And quite right too - I am not trained to do so. What that also means is if you e-mail me and ask me anything along the lines of "Should I buy or sell this share?" I cannot answer you except to say it is your choice! Of course I am more than happy to answer anything to do with general market/educational questions.
 
You should understand I always have an interest, and sometimes a big interest, in any stock I talk about. For website purposes my buys will often be to smaller stakes than in reality. So although my buys are real enough, as are the prices, I can and often do buy much bigger stakes in the shares. I may also "top up" in shares without declaring it and I will  sometimes deal more often than I mention on the site - mainly because of time pressure, if markets are busy. So though the buys on the site are around the £5,000 mark I may well deal in reality is sizes of £10,000 - £30,000.
 
My reasoning for this is I simply do not want to encourage people to blindly follow me into something when they do not understand the potential risk. It's ok for me because I can afford to lose money I put into the market. It may not be the case for you.  I am generally a medium term investor holding my shares usually between 1 week and on occasions up to 3 years. Average holding time is probably about 3 months.
 
So one of my main messages is: don't be tempted to follow me blindly into my choices. Quite often, as I play momentum, a share I have bought may already be much higher than when I bought it, especially as I do not update every day. If you follow me blindly you may be buying at a much higher price and you may end up selling at a much lower one.
 
You should ALWAYS do your own research and come to your own decisions on share purchases. If you follow me into something and lose money, you only have yourself to blame and not me. You should learn about markets and understand what you are doing before entering them.
 
The most risky way of trading of all is spreadbetting, which I do quite a bit. You should carefully read all the warnings that the spread betting firms issue together with all the warnings in my books. And never, ever, play with money you cannot afford to lose.
 
The aim of this site is to entertain, and perhaps stimulate debate, and that is the condition of entry !I really hope you enjoy reading about my triumphs and mistakes, but please, just watch and enjoy my triumphs and learn from my mistakes. Consider this site as entertainment. If this is your first visit to the Nakedtrader website site, I thank you for visiting me, and hope you will find this site useful. 
 
After reading and agreeing to the disclaimer, click the "I accept" button below. Please remember, I cannot give any specific advice, as to whether you should buy, hold or sell any individual share.
 
"The investments and other products referred to on the Naked Trader website should in no way be considered "advice" to buy or sell anything.  Naked Trader information is given in general terms only and does not constitute personal advice to any individual.  Investors are responsible for formulating and applying their own strategies based on their own personal circumstances. Naked Trader recommends that you obtain independent financial advice from an FSA-authorised intermediary before investing money.  Information given in previous editions of Naked Trader daily updates may become outdated and should not be relied upon unless confirmed by recent comment
 
 

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