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Despite market rises I still feel cautious...

happy trader
The FTSE 100 has bounced back up towards all-time highs, but can the index sustain it?

I'm surprised at the strength of the markets but it just goes to show that trying to guess direction or get in and out right at the top or bottom is a mug's game.

I thought it would head down and even put a FTSE short on but it kept going up so I made a hasty exit.

A reminder, the cheapest place to short is http://www.spreadco.com/nakedtrader (0.8 spread).

When shorting goes wrong it can go VERY wrong and it's always best to clear out quick if it goes against what you thought.

I know some people talk about technicals like golden crosses and RSIs, but I'm long enough in the tooth to tell you it is all bollocks!

Despite global markets continuing to climb, I still feel cautious so my "get out quick" strategy when things go wrong definitely remains very much in place.

Interest rates remained on hold today which isn't a great long-term signal. It looked like they were going to raise them so the underlying economy must be pants for them to make no move.

But the portfolio has been going so well I've been perfectly content to sit on a sunlounger in the garden listening to music and eating Twixes rather than bother hunting for much new. In any case, I'm about to hopefully unearth lots of new ideas at the seminar Monday week.

I must stop eating the Twixes, they are supposed to be for the delegates coming to the seminar .

By the way, there will be a full report on what I buy live at the seminar in the next update.

The seminar has been sold out for a bit, but a reminder there is an extra date on June 29. That'll be the last until the autumn so mail me if you fancy it.

But, as always, one or two things have come up.

I'd noticed the statement from Van Elle Holdings (LON:VANL) and I rather liked it so I bought some. It's had a torrid time last year but this statement shows it could be on the up.

It actually came up with a likely adjusted profit figure and forecasts for 2019 look pretty good. If they prove to be anywhere near right, the shares are worth a lot more.

Debt isn't too bad and there's a very good sign in that it has appointed a very experienced new CEO who is very near the top of the tree at Balfour Beatty.

The company still has problems of course, but I reckon these are pretty much all in the deflated share price.

Another deflated share price is an old mate, Scapa Group plc (LON:SCPA) on which I made a few quid in the past.

Results are coming up on May 22. It's always tricky buying things ahead of results but it seems to be starting to rise ahead of them which is a good sign.

I think if they fell below support at around 400p I might bottle it, though!

Cashflow is healthy and net debt is low considering it's made some acquisitions. I'm probably just looking for a rise from the low 400s back to the 500 peak. Perhaps a guaranteed stop on a spreadbet might be considered just in case at under the support level.

I picked up some more Future PLC (LON:FUTR).

Of course again it is risky picking up shares in a company close to reporting (May 17), but the shares are rising here in advance as well.

The recent statement reported strong trading with recent the acquisition of Newbay, which gives it a platform in the US by taking its info and events business.

It should start to see increasing sales in the States and the company indeed looks to have a good long-term future. So, if I can hold onto the shares for one or two years, I will.

This morning I bought back some Entertainment One (LON:ETO). It has been a great money maker in the past and it looks like it has bottomed out.

This one has the rights to Peppa Pig (TF I don't have to watch that anymore...hands up who hates Daddy Pig!)

It has big debt too but has a massive library worth more than £1bn. Content is king and it would be surprising if at some point the company isn't snapped up. I think the takeout price would have to be at the 400p level.

I have ummed and ahhed as to whether to include this buy on the website rather than just to the high risk section of the e-mail. It has only just made it!

The company in question is an old favourite, Dignity (LON:DTY), on which I made an awful lot over the years as it rose from £7 to £28. I didn't get out at the top but as detailed on the site I still made some very decent profits.

Lucky for me I had exited because shares slumped recently when it said it was reducing the cost of funerals. That would lead to a lot less profit but better off in the very long run. ('Til death us do part?)

It is high risk as results are on Monday and it could go up or down by 200 points.

The slump has seemed wildly overdone though, and I think the shares are worth more.  I'd be looking for a rise back up to the 1500p area in time. It says it just isn't sure where the cost of a funeral is going to end up. So there are problems and likely volatility which makes it on the riskier end.

I've taken profits of just under £5,000 on Fenner PLC (LON:FENR). It doesn't look like a higher bid is coming and there's a dividend payout on the way as well. Farewell Fenner, you have been good to me over the years.

Elsewhere it has been another terrific couple of weeks with some massive gains and all accounts on highs. ITV plc (LON:ITV) reported today and the new boss is the former head of Easyjet PLC (LON:EZJ). I always have time for her since she emailed me when I had a complaint about her old employer.

Her report was pretty confident, most parts of it are doing unexpectedly well and there should be more to come after the break. Avon Rubber PLC's (LON:AVON) cracking of 1350p looked bullish and indeed it is trying to get over 1400p. If it can, next stop 1500p!

Iomart Group PLC (LON:IOM) is trying to get over 400p. That's another lovely long-termer with massive profits.

GB Group (LON:GBG) has been climbing fast and sitting near all time highs. A pure delight over the years with over £100,000 profit.


Sopheon PLC (LON:SPE)!  I've now more than doubled some of the earlier trades and I have been tempted once or twice to take profits. It hit 1000p before profit taking came in. But it could easily go above that with a push. NWF Group plc (LON:NWF) has pushed over 200p. K3 Capital Group Plc (LONK3C) is consolidating around the 300p mark. Can it have another go at heading back up to 400p?

My biggest holding, SafeCharge International Group Ltd (LON:SCH) continues its slow march up and looks like soon to break all time highs. It's just a matter of patience here and hoping for a 400-450p takeout. Science Group PLC (LON:SAG) has moved well to the 250p area and hoping a decent statement will push it to 300p. Plus, there are some share buybacks coming too.

Overall, I'm very pleased with the progress but again I remain cautious after recent rises and won't hesitate to short the indices again should a meltdown look likely.

Nakedtrader  was created after I left my full-time job as a finance editor for BskyB to trade full-time. I had been writing an diary page for its teletext service since 1998 and decided as I was leaving to transfer that to the internet.
 
These articles are simply a "diary" of my life, or what you would now call a "blog". I detail what I've bought, sold or shorted and briefly why. I use various spreadbetting companies and stockbrokers to carry out the trades. I ignore commission but also dividends and I reckon the two balance each other up.
 
So you should be aware this is not a "tipping" site and I do not consider myself, nor do I want to be, a "tipster". In other words tipsters will urge you to "buy" something - and they generally are regulated to do so by the FSA. I simply state I have already bought or sold something personally. Because of that I am not "regulated" - so I am not an authorised "tipster". I am simply a trader who states his positions.
 
That is quite a big difference. I am not allowed to give what is called "Individual investment advice". And quite right too - I am not trained to do so. What that also means is if you e-mail me and ask me anything along the lines of "Should I buy or sell this share?" I cannot answer you except to say it is your choice! Of course I am more than happy to answer anything to do with general market/educational questions.
 
You should understand I always have an interest, and sometimes a big interest, in any stock I talk about. For website purposes my buys will often be to smaller stakes than in reality. So although my buys are real enough, as are the prices, I can and often do buy much bigger stakes in the shares. I may also "top up" in shares without declaring it and I will  sometimes deal more often than I mention on the site - mainly because of time pressure, if markets are busy. So though the buys on the site are around the £5,000 mark I may well deal in reality is sizes of £10,000 - £30,000.
 
My reasoning for this is I simply do not want to encourage people to blindly follow me into something when they do not understand the potential risk. It's ok for me because I can afford to lose money I put into the market. It may not be the case for you.  I am generally a medium term investor holding my shares usually between 1 week and on occasions up to 3 years. Average holding time is probably about 3 months.
 
So one of my main messages is: don't be tempted to follow me blindly into my choices. Quite often, as I play momentum, a share I have bought may already be much higher than when I bought it, especially as I do not update every day. If you follow me blindly you may be buying at a much higher price and you may end up selling at a much lower one.
 
You should ALWAYS do your own research and come to your own decisions on share purchases. If you follow me into something and lose money, you only have yourself to blame and not me. You should learn about markets and understand what you are doing before entering them.
 
The most risky way of trading of all is spreadbetting, which I do quite a bit. You should carefully read all the warnings that the spread betting firms issue together with all the warnings in my books. And never, ever, play with money you cannot afford to lose.
 
The aim of this site is to entertain, and perhaps stimulate debate, and that is the condition of entry !I really hope you enjoy reading about my triumphs and mistakes, but please, just watch and enjoy my triumphs and learn from my mistakes. Consider this site as entertainment. If this is your first visit to the Nakedtrader website site, I thank you for visiting me, and hope you will find this site useful. 
 
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"The investments and other products referred to on the Naked Trader website should in no way be considered "advice" to buy or sell anything.  Naked Trader information is given in general terms only and does not constitute personal advice to any individual.  Investors are responsible for formulating and applying their own strategies based on their own personal circumstances. Naked Trader recommends that you obtain independent financial advice from an FSA-authorised intermediary before investing money.  Information given in previous editions of Naked Trader daily updates may become outdated and should not be relied upon unless confirmed by recent comment
 
 

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