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Today's Oil and Gas Update - Base metals track downwards on IMF warning

Today's Oil and Gas Update - Base metals track downwards on IMF warning

SP Angel – Morning View – Friday 12 10 18

Commodity rout caught up in trade war sentiment


MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below 


Anglo Asian Mining* (LON:AAZ) BUY, Target 84p – Earnings update: CLICK FOR PDF

Cora Gold* (LON:CORA) – 1-2moz exploration target identified at Sanankoro

Cradle Arc* (LON:CRA) – Licence extensions granted at Thakadu and Makala

Galileo Resources (LON:GLR) – Drilling results from Star Zinc

Orosur Mining (LON:OMI) – Q1 results and Newmont investment in Anzá gold project in Colombia

Premier African Minerals (LON:PREM) – Zimbabwe to decide on restructuring of RHA tungsten mine

Bacanora Lithium (LON:BCN) – Final audited accounts for year ended 30 June 2018

Talga Resources* (ASX:TLG) – Swedish cobalt project update


London mining conference grows as number of specialist investors rises

121 Mining Investment conference with SP Angel 20-21 November

  • The number of investors looking at mining companies in London is rising as seen in growing interest in the 121 Mining Investment conference to be held in November
  • Over 360 professional and other investors are registered to see 115 mining companies



China – Weak Chinese car sales reflect slowing consumer demand amid falling economic growth rates as well as the knock-on effects of the trade war.

  • Car sales plunged 11.6%yoy in September, making for the biggest drop in almost seven years and marking the third consecutive decline.
  • The decline comes on the back of sluggish economy, deleveraging and a tough pollution crackdown, according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers.
  • The news comes on the heels of the PBoC comments that the central bank still has plenty of tools that it can use to soften effects of a trade war.
  • “I think the downside risks from trade tensions are significant… we still have plenty of monetary instruments in terms of interest rate policy, in terms of required reserve ration… we have plenty of room for adjustment, in case we need it,” PBoC Governor Yi Gang said.
  • The central bank cut reserve requirement ratio last week which was considered as a move to prop up economic growth.


EU offers billions of funding for electric battery plant

  • The EU plans to offer billions of euros of co-funding to companies willing to construct giant battery factories, providing state aid for electric battery research. In Brussels, there are rising concerns the automotive industry, which employs 13m people, could be left behind in the race to build mass market electric vehicles due to their reliance on Asian imports.
  • Chief Executive of Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi, Carlos Ghosn, notes the industry “cannot continue to prosper” unless it builds its own capacity, Energy vice-president at the European Commission, Maros Sefcovic, added “we know very clearly that the future is electric and we simply have to catch up with this (battery) technology. You cannot develop new models or high-quality cars if you do not master the skills, the innovation, and research link with batteries”.
  • Roughly 80% of the world’s existing and planned battery production capacity is in Asia, according to Bloomberg data. China alone has 69%, with the US at 15% and the EU at under 4%.
  • Individual EU countries will be allowed to fund 100% of research, as long as they involve some cross-border projects. The EU’s Horizon 2020 research fund has set aside €200m for battery projects; €800m is available to finance building demonstration facilities; regions looking to promote the industry can apply for the €22bn regional funds available; and the European Fund for Strategic Investment is available from the European Investment Bank to co-fund the billions of euros needed to build an EU equivalent of Tesla’s “gigafactory” in the Nevada desert.
  • As many as 260 companies across the supply chain and four groups have aspirations to build a gigafactory. Taking advantage of the support, Northvolt borrowed €52.5m from EIB to build a €100m demonstration line and research facility, expected to open in 2019, with ambitions to build Europe’s largest factory – 32GWh annual production – by 2023.
  • Research fellow at the Bruegel think-tank suggests “The EU carmakers have refused to see the change occurring in electric vehicles for a long time and are only now starting to go in this direction. However, catch-up is still possible due to the EU industry's innovation capabilities and skills”.
  • To address the scarcity of raw materials, the EU plans to recover some from recycling old electronics and has also begun mapping European mineral deposits. The bloc has cobalt, lithium, graphite and nickel deposits in France, Finland, Portugal, Spain and the Czech Republic, said Mr Sefcovic.


High capacity, thin lithium-ion battery

  • A team of researchers from Shinshu University in Nagano, Japan is now closer to a thin, high-capacity lithium-ion battery that could open the gates to better energy storage systems for electric vehicles.
  • The research team was led by professor Katsuya Teshima, director of the Center for Energy and Environmental Science at Shinshu University in Japan.
  • Zettsu may have turned the tide on surface modifiers through the use of a self-assembled monolayer to attempt to tackle gradual storage capacity losses.


Copper flow: Liquid metal in a crystal

  • New research reveals how copper ions can flow like liquid through certain crystalline materials, according to scientists in the USA.
  • Researchers from Duke University, Oak Ridge National Laboratory and Argonne National Laboratory have used neutrons and X-rays to probe a superionic crystal containing copper, chromium and selenium
  • The study reveals that the copper ions inside the material can adopt a liquid-like character.
  • Ultimately, the insights that emerge could be used to make rechargeable batteries safer and more efficient than the current class based on lithium ions.


Oil price rise accelerated as killing of Saudi dissident in Turkey highlights potential to Weaponise the oil price

  • Higher oil prices and the potential for Saudi Arabia to cut oil exports is likely to have a naturally and surprisingly negative impact on the global economy and US corporate earnings
  • The impact is likely to be amplified most non-US currencies unless the US dollar corrects lower.
  • Inflation is likely to rise prompting the traditional response of higher interest rates from many central banks as they also move to support local currencies
  • Miners are more efficient in their energy production than they used to be but are still big consumers of fuel-oil and oil-based reagents.
  • We forecast oil prices to rise to $120/bbl in 2021 coincident with the three-year investment cycle as Oil & Gas as production naturally declines by around 10% each year.


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AIM Basic Resources







Germany – Ruling Christian Social Union recorded a sharp drop in supporters in the Bavarian state parliamentary elections on Sunday.

  • The CSU, the Bavarian sister party to Merkel’s conservative Christian Democrat Union (CDU), lost its majority in the regional parliament having secured 37% of the vote, more than 10pp down from previous result.
  • Greens and the far-right Alternative for Germany recorded gains having secured 17.5% and 10.2% of the vote.
  • The shift in sentiment towards the CSU which has dominated politics in the state since the end of WWII and ruled for all but three years for nearly seven decades comes on the back of factional disputes and delays in forming a grand coalition in the Bundestag over asylum policy earlier in the summer.


UK – The pound is trading lower against the US$ this morning as Britain rejected offered EU terms raising chances of a no deal Brexit.

  • Dominic Raab is reported to have had a brief meeting with Michel Barnier over the weekend during which UK representative said PM will not be signing the current terms at a European Council meeting this Wednesday.
  • A joint Brexit department and Number 10 statement said that despite “real progress in a number of key areas”, “unresolved issues” remained following talks between Mr Raab and Mr Barnier.


Saudi Arabia – The stock market recouped some of its losses on Monday morning as the government faces accusations of extrajudicial killing of a prominent journalist in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul earlier this month.

  • Turkish officials believe the journalist which is a US resident was killed inside the consulate.
  • The US President warned the kingdom would face “severe punishment” if the government is proven to have had killed Jamal Khashoggi.
  • Saudis denied all allegations and said “the kingdom affirms its total rejection of any threats and attempts to undermine it, whether by threatening to impose economic sanctions, using political pressures or repeating false accusations”.



US$1.1573/eur vs 1.1601/eur last week  Yen 111.83/$ vs 112.36/$  SAr 14.443/$ vs 14.460/$  $1.312/gbp vs $1.325/gbp  0.713/aud vs 0.713/aud  CNY 6.928/$ vs 6.911/$


Commodity News

Precious metals:         

Gold US$1,228/oz vs US$1,219/oz last week - US develops new gold-silver alloy for military use

   Gold ETFs 67.6moz vs US$67.4moz last week

Platinum US$844/oz vs US$841/oz last week

Palladium US$1,075/oz vs US$1,090/oz last week

Silver US$14.69/oz vs US$14.58/oz last week


Base metals:

  • Base metals broadly retreated following a boost from strong Chinese import data on Friday, following equities after weekend warnings on global economic fragility from the IMF’s annual gathering and President Donald Trump hinting at more trade tariffs against China.
  • International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde advised investors and policy makers to be ready for more market volatility amid further financial tightening and “choppy” waters in the global economy stemming from trade tensions. The fund’s advice to central bankers and finance chiefs is to continue building monetary and fiscal buffers for the risks ahead.
  • President Trump raised the prospect of another round of tariffs on China’s exports, telling CBSI want them to negotiate a fair deal with us. I want them to open their markets like our markets are open”.
  • Zinc, the worst performing base metal year-to-date, posted the biggest decline as copper and aluminium also tumbled. Metals have traded sideways in recent weeks, with a gain of less than 1% this month, and are headed for the first annual loss in three years.

Copper US$ 6,279/t vs US$6,307/t last week

Aluminium US$ 2,034/t vs US$2,037/t last week

Nickel US$ 12,670/t vs US$12,855/t last week

Zinc US$ 2,644/t vs US$2,665/t last week

Lead US$ 2,050/t vs US$2,014/t last week

Tin US$ 19,090/t vs US$19,170/t last week



Oil US$81.2/bbl vs US$81.2/bbl last week – The World Hit a Daily Oil and Liquids Record

  • The world is pumping out more oil and other petroleum liquids than ever before.
  • Global supply rose to 100.3m bpd in the third quarter, the International Energy Agency said Friday in its monthly oil market report.
  • Output was 2.3m barrels above the same period last year and 1.3m bpd higher than the second quarter.

Oil prices climb amid Saudi tensions

  • Crude oil futures rose on Monday as geopolitical tensions over the disappearance of a prominent Saudi journalist stoked worries about supply, although concerns about the long-term outlook for demand dragged on prices.
  • Crude markets were also supported in the wake of data that showed South Korea did not import any oil from Iran in September for the first time in six years, before U.S. sanctions against the Middle Eastern country take effect in November.
  • Brent crude rises $1.01, or 1.26%, to 81.44/barrel, on track for its biggest daily gain since Oct. 9.
  • US crude futures rose 80c/bbl, or 1.12%, to $72.14/bbl, extending gains they racked up on Friday after hefty losses on Wednesday and Thursday.

Natural Gas US$3.197/mmbtu vs US$3.253/mmbtu last week - China on pace to become top natural gas importer in 2018

  • China is expected to become the world's biggest importer of natural gas for the first time in 2018, overtaking long time leaders Japan and South Korea.
  • Spot prices for liquefied natural gas in Asia doubled between July and December of last year to $11.20 per m British thermal units from $5.45.
  • China imported 57.18m t of gas from January to August, compared with Japan's 56.45 m t.

Uranium US$27.50/lb vs US$27.50/lb last week

  • National Atomic Company KazAtomProm, the world’s largest producer of natural uranium, is considering IPO and plans to publish a registration document of Monday. The company’s sole shareholder, the sovereign wealth fund Samruk-Kazyna, is to offer securities.
  • The privatisation of KazAtom, aims to boost the nations economy and support a leading producer with ~20% global production.
  • The deposit hosts the largest uranium reserves with production achieved from a low cost, highly scalable operation. In 2017, the company had consolidated revenue of KZT336.5bn ($905m) and profit of KZT139.2bn ($375m).



Iron ore 62% Fe spot (cfr Tianjin) US$69.9/t vs US$69.6/t

Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$685.4/t vs US$683.4/t

Thermal coal (1st year forward cif ARA) US$95.5/t vs US$94.7/t

Premium hard coking coal Aus fob US$191.5/t vs US$191.9/t



Cobalt LME 3m US$61,750/t vs US$61,750/t

China NdPr Rare Earth Oxide US$46,191/t vs US$46,303/t

China Lithium carbonate 99% US$9,816/t vs US$9,839/t

Tungsten APT European US$275-290/mtu vs US$275-290/mtu


Company News

Anglo Asian Mining* (LON:AAZ) 70p, Mkt Cap £80m – Earnings update

BUY – 84p


  • We have issued our updated earnings to account for latest quarterly operations results and the 25% of FCF dividend policy.
  • Click on the link above for a full set of earnings estimates.

(Dec year end)









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GE production









AISC (incl PSA, reported)






















































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Source: Company, SP Angel


*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Anglo Asian Mining


Cora Gold* (LON:CORA) 10p, Mkt Cap £5.5m – 1-2moz exploration target identified at Sanankoro

  • SRK Consulting released an initial Exploration Target of between 30-50mt at an average grade of 1.0-1.3g/t for 1.0-2.0moz gold contained at the flagship Sanankoro Gold Discovery in southern Mali.
  • The mineralisation has been delineated to a depth of 100m most of which is hosted within soft weathered material.
  • Oxidation zone ranges from around 50m to in excess of 100m in depth across the project area.
  • Soft saprolitic rock lends itself to cheap surface mining and milling offering a potential low cost source of ore to the processing plant.
  • The coming filed season drilling programme will now focus on higher grade zones testing their strike extent and depth potential within the mineralised structure.
  • Full SRK Exploration Target report will be released in due course.

Conclusion: The estimate provides a good starting point for the next phase of the drilling programme aiming to delineate higher grade zones that would potentially kickstart a standalone gold operation.

*SP Angel acts as Nomad and Broker to Cora Gold


Cradle Arc* (LON:CRA) 1.3p, mkt cap £3.6m – Licence extensions granted at Thakadu and Makala

  • Cradle Arc reports that its mining licence covering approximately 28.5km2 including the Thakadu open pit and adjacent Makala underground deposit has been extended by Botswana’s Ministry of Mines, Green Technology and Energy Security until May 2020.
  • The project area at Thakadu, which is located some 70km south east of the company’s key Mowana mining operation, has an indicated resource of 2.3mt at an average grade of 1.11% copper and 11g/t silver and an additional inferred resource of 5.4mt at an average grade of 0.63% copper and 9g/t silver.
  • The Makala deposit, located approximately 700m north-east of Thakadu has a reported inferred resource of 11.5mt at an average grade of 1.46% copper and 34g/t silver.
  • The company comments that “Shallow, historical mining between the two deposits indicates the potential for future infill drilling to join the two deposits along strike to create a total strike length of over 3km”.
  • While noting that previous owners had transported ore from Thakadu to Mowana for treatment, CEO, Kevin van Wouw outlined that “subject to obtaining the requisite finance in due course, … [Cradle Arc plans to start] … the additional drilling required in the future to enhance the confidence of the existing resource, a vital step towards completing a feasibility study for a potential underground mining operation using access from the base of the existing open pit."
  • Historical scoping studies “indicated that the resource was eminently mineable with financial returns strong enough to justify further development”.

Conclusion: Securing licence tenure at Thakadu and Makala provides Cradle Arc with relatively low risk development opportunities however, we imagine that the primary focus is currently on Mowana.

*SP Angel acts as Joint Broker to Cradle Arc Plc


Galileo Resources (LON:GLR) 1.1 pence, Mkt Cap £3.3m – Drilling results from Star Zinc

  • Galileo Resources reports drilling results from the initial four holes of its recently completed 8 holes, 1000m drilling programme at its 80.75% owned Star Zinc project in Zambia.
  • Drilling results, mainly from the eastern part of the deposit include:
    • A 23m wide intersection averaging 15.46% zinc from a depth of 14m in hole SZDD030 which included a higher grade section of 12m from a depth of 21m at an average grade of 26.21% zinc;
    • A 12m wide intersection averaging 15.46% zinc from a depth of 10m in hole SZDD032 which also included a higher grade section of 7m from a depth of 12m at an average grade of 22.69% zinc;
    • A 5m wide intersection averaging 9.38% zinc from a depth of 11.5 in hole SZDD034 which included a higher grade section of 2m at an average grade of 23.1% zinc; and
    • A 13m wide intersection averaging 6.37% zinc from a depth of 13m in hole SZDD036 which included a section of 3m from a depth of 18m at an average grade of 23.59% zinc
  • The company also notes that the higher zinc grades also appear to be associated with elevated levels of germanium.
  • “The Company intends to develop, as soon as practicable, a work programme with the objective of meeting the requirements for the application of a small scale mining licence for Star Zinc”
  • “The transfer to Galileo of the 15% interest (indirectly 14.25% in the Star Zinc project) in Enviro Zambia Ltd. (EZL), currently not held by Galileo, is progressing pursuant to the agreement announced on 13 September 2018.  On transfer Galileo will hold 95% and the Government 5%  of Star Zinc”

Conclusion: The recent drilling at Star Zinc is intersecting high zinc grades in the eastern part of the deposit as Galileo moves ahead to acquire a 95% interest. We look forward to the remaining drilling results as they become available.


Orosur Mining (LON:OMI) 8 pence, Mkt Cap £11.7m – Q1 results and Newmont investment in Anzá gold project in Colombia

  • Orosur Mining reports a Q1 pre-tax loss of US$6m for the three months ending 31st August (Q1 2018 loss $0.4m).
  • The result reflects sharply reduced output of 3,029oz of gold (Q1 2018 8,626oz) following the decision, in August, to place the San Gregorio operation in Uruguay on care-and-maintenance following technical setbacks including lower than expected grades at the underground  SGW part of the mine.
  • Cash balances at 31st August amounted to US$1.1m, partially offset by long term debt of US$0.2m. A creditors meeting to help determine the future of the Uruguayan operations is to be held in December.
  • Newmont Mining has, however, provided US$2m via a non-brokered private placement for a 19.9% interest in the company and agreed to earn a 75% interest, over three phases, in Orosur’s Anza gold project in Colombia “by spending a minimum of US$30million in qualifying expenditures over twelve years.”
  • The investment milestones include the completion of an NI-43-101 compliant feasibility study “and making cash payments to Orosur equalling a total of US$4.0 million over Phases 1 and 2”.

Conclusion: Newmont’s backing for the Azna project provides a new strategic direction following the operational difficulties in Uruguay.


Premier African Minerals (LON:PREM) 0.12p, Mkt Cap £8.7m – Zimbabwe to decide on restructuring of RHA tungsten mine

  • Premier African Minerals ‘PREM’ has applied to the Zimbabwean government to restructure its holding in RHA given the need to put fresh equity into the project.
  • The Ministry of Industry, Commerce and Enterprise Development has indicated that the process will be concluded before the end of this month.
  • Premier African Minerals currently holds the maximum allowable stake of 49% in Zimbabwe but recent proposals indicate the government is will relax the rules for new projects.
  • PREM has struggled to make its RHA tungsten project work, first in the open pit and then from the underground.
  • The CEO says Premier has established independently that it is feasible to bring RHA back into production and that it will be possible to finance the start of production but not until proper legal process is concluded and the ownership of RHA reflects present Zimbabwean Government policy.
  • Premier’s new technical plan is set out in the following RNS:
  • The model assumes an ambitious but not outrageous Tungsten APT price of $300/mtu vs a price of $275-290/mtu in Europe and $280-286/mtu in China last week.
  • The closure of Wolf’s Drakeland’s tungsten mine might well cause prices to rise further in the short term making PREM’s restructuring plan all the more attractive.
  • PREM’s underground measured resource grade was estimated a year ago at 29,000t grading 0.545% WO3 with the indicated resource at 76,000t grading 0.631%.
  • The total underground mineral resource was 6,257t of contained wolframite though we suspect there will more to be mined.
  • Today’s new plan proposes a peak funding requirement to get the mine back on track of US$1.657m in month four with positive cash flow in month five.
  • We suspect a combination of past poor recovery rates, lowish underground grades and some geological uncertainty has led to the closure of the mine.
  • We hope the new government of Zimbabwe will allow the restructuring to give this latest plan a chance of being financed and for a return to work at the mine.


Bacanora Lithium (LON:BCN) 33.0p, Mkt Cap £44m – Final audited accounts for year ended 30 June 2018

  • Bacanora lithium provide audited final results for the 12 months ended 30 June 2018, which saw the company successful complete the redomicile of jurisdiction from Canada to the UK, which is solely quoted on AIM. The company also strengthened its Board and Senior Management Team to support the development of broad lithium projects, welcoming two new Directors, Peter Secker (CEO) and Eileen Carr (NED), and a new CFO, Janet Boyce.
  • The company are advancing both the flagship Sonora Lithium Project in Mexico with ongoing feasibility study work at its Zinnwald Lithium Project in Germany.
  • The Sonora lithium project demonstrated strong economics from a Feasibility Study for a 35,000tpa lithium carbonate operation:
    • US$1.25bn NPV based on lithium carbonate prices of US$11,000/t
    • 26.1% IRR
    • US$3,910/t lithium carbonate life of mine gross operating costs which are comparable with those of the low-cost brine producers of South America
  • Post period end, US$150m senior debt facility secured with RK Mine Finance, a leading provider of finance for resources companies, to finance the development of Sonora.
  • Post period end, US$65m and US$25m conditional equity commitments from the State General Reserve Fund of Oman, and Bacanora's offtake partner, Hanwa Co., LTD, as part of the Sonora project financing package.
  • Following final consideration settlement in August 2018, Bacanora have unrestricted access to develop and operate Sonora for the initial LOM secured following acquisition of La Ventana and La Joya parcels of land in Sonora for US$2.9m.
  • Bacanora are also developing the Feasibility Study for the Zinnwald deposit in Germany, expected for completion in Q2 2019. The project hosts a NI 43-101 compliant upgraded measured and indicated resource of 124,974 tonnes of contained lithium for Zinnwald issued in September 2018.
  • Exploration licence awarded covering 295 hectares of the previously mined Falkenhain lithium deposit 5km from Zinnwald in Germany - potential to increase the LOM of Zinnwald.
  • CEO Peter Secker notes the Sonora project “is one of the most advanced projects currently in the pipeline but, if forecasts that demand for lithium could rise to more than 450,000 tonnes per annum by 2025 from today’s 250,000 level prove to be correct, much more production will be needed”.


Talga Resources* (ASX:TLG) A$0.45, Mkt Cap A$96.8m – Swedish cobalt project update

  • Talga Resources announce the incorporation of 100% owned Swedish subsidiary – Talga Battery Metals AB – supporting the advance of cobalt-copper-gold projects located in northern Sweden.
  • Kiskama project
    • All necessary permitting obtained to commence diamond drilling as part of completing the maiden JORC compliant cobalt-copper-gold resource at Kiskama.
    • Geophysical surveys (IP and MLEM) commenced to define further extensions to known mineralisation and test high grade drill targets.
    • Project extended over prospective new targets including historic rock sample results up to 0.27% Co, 0.9% Cu and 0.12g/t Au.
  • Lautakoski project
    • Drill core sampling extends ‘wildcat’ mineralised intercept to 91.8m @ 0.18% Cu and 147ppm Co from 14m depth including 21m @ 0.34% Cu and 182ppm Co.
    • Anomalous lead-zinc intercepted 2.5km north of the copper-cobalt mineralised zone, including 1.35m @ 1.6% Zn and 0.94% Pb from 104m.
  • East Aitik project
    • Talga rock samples return up to 4.8% Cu, 1.2g/t Au, 66g/t Ag, 0.6% Mb plus anomalous levels of tellurium and bismuth.
  • Managing Director Mark Thompson adds “the potential of the projects is further enhanced by the close proximity to high-quality infrastructure and low-cost sustainable hydropower, as well as being situated in the same mining district as Europe’s largest copper-gold mine”.

Conclusion – The co-development of Swedish cobalt projects complements downstream processing of the flagship Vittangi graphite to support the growing battery markets, particularly in Europe who are targeting billions of euros funding to expand battery capacity. We look forward to understanding the scale of the projects as maiden JORC compliant resources are announced.


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