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Morning Market Pulse - AB Foods for thought

Published: 09:08 24 Apr 2019 BST

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Mike van Dulken at Accendo Markets, commented to clients this morning:

 

Markets Overview:

FTSE 100 called to open -15pts at 7510, back from yesterday’s highs 7528 but holding both Friday’s 7475 breakout, and above round number 7500. Bulls need a break above 7530 to extend the post-Christmas rising channel towards 7675. Bears require a breach of 7500 for a further retreat towards rising support at 7480. Watch levels: Bullish 7530, Bearish 7495

 

Calls for a negative open come with oil prices off their highs but still hovering around their best in almost six months. Wall Street rallied to new highs on earnings reports and optimism about trade talks resuming with China. Asian markets failed to follow suit after some negative corporate results in the region (Nissan, LG Display, Samsung read-across from Texas Instruments).


Gold remains under pressure, testing a new yearly low, hampered by the twin hindrance of rising equity markets depressing safe haven demand and a strong USD making the yellow metal more expensive. GBP is at its lowest level since February versus the USD, which may help the FTSE’s international army. Brent Crude Oil hovering around its yearly high at around $74.

 

In corporate news this morning;

 

Antofagasta Q1 Copper production +22.6% YoY, but -14.3% QoQ due to lower grades and maintenance. Net cash costs below guidance, a shade lower than FY18. FY19 production guidance unchanged; seen +9% to 750-790 tonnes.

 

AB Foods H1 Group revenues +1% (just below consensus), adj. op. profit -1% (above consensus), interim dividend +3%; Sugar profits substantially lower but should improve; Grocery has momentum; Primark profits growth excellent; Grocery growth to continue in H2. FY outlook for Primark unchanged (lower margins in H2 due to stronger USD). Group outlook unchanged.

 

CRH Q1 like for like sales +7%, vol. helped by mild weather; Strategic review of EU distribution business ongoing. Another €350m share buyback before Aug. H1 (seasonally less significant) EBITDA expected €1.5B (vs €1.13B last year). Weather permitting, H2 to show growth too.

 

Centamin Q1 average realised sales price +5% QoQ and +2% YoY. Sukari gold production beats guidance. Costs trending towards lower end of guidance; reiterates full year annual guidance; gold production 490-520kt, costs $675-725/oz ($890-950 all in).

 

Legal & General agrees £114m pension risk transfer transaction in Canada, its first in the region. Aviva UK Insurance CEO Andy Briggs to step down; CRO Angela Darlington to take interim role. New group CEO Maurice Tulloch to lead a review of UK businesses.

 

Boohoo FY revenues +48% (beat), gross profit +53%, adj. EBITDA +49%, adj. pre-tax profit +49% (miss), net cash +43.3%, cash flow +46.8%; First few weeks of financial year encouraging. Revenue growth expected 25-30%, adjusted EBITDA margin 10%, CAPEX £50-60m. To keep spending on investment.

 

The investment sector may be sensitive to news of UBS and Deutsche Bank’s Wealth Management divisions exploring a tie up that would make them the European leader by assets.

 

Healthcare stocks may react top swiss giant Novartis upping its full year profits guidance. Banks may also like Credit Suisse profits rising, beating estimates.

 

UBS has issued research on UK REITs (Hammerson, INTU, British Land, Land Securities), suggesting CVA levels on struggling retailers are being underreported.

 

Amigo Holdings CEO to step down this summer for medical treatment and extended recuperation. New CCO will start as CEO designate.

 

Ratings agency Moody's assigns Ba1 rating to William Hill's new £350m senior 2026 notes where are to being used to tender its £375m 2020 notes. Outlook remains negative.

 

WANDisco 2018 revenues -13% (H2 +13%), cash overheads +21.6%, adj. EBITDA loss $9.4m (vs $0.6m in 2017), operating loss +127%, cash -60%, debt -2.5%; Q1 revenues +38%, cash +125% thanks to fundraising; strong pipeline, confident in FY outlook.

 

In focus today:

 

Data of note today includes German IFO Surveys (9am) forecast largely unchanged in April; Expectations slightly lower, Business Climate and Current Conditions a shade higher.

 

Thereafter, we have only EIA US Oil Inventories (3.30pm) which will be of interest given last night’s surprise 6.9m barrel build from the API report.

 

US corporate results from heavyweights including Boeing, Caterpillar, Facebook, Microsoft, Paypal, Tesla and Visa

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