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GBP sucked lower on political vacuum

GBP sucked lower on political vacuum

FTSE 100 called to open -65pts at 6075, having fallen back considerably from Friday’s post-Brexit 6220 recovery highs to re-test lows of 5900. The Bulls will be watching for a break above 6100 to inspire hopes that the overnight rebound has legs and that Friday’s highs can be matched. Bears will be eyeing any turn back that takes us back below 6000. Watch levels: Bullish 6105, Bearish 5990.
Calls for another negative open comes in spite of a largely positive Asian session after the UK Pound had a tough start to the new trading week, slumping again last night as the aftershock of a Brexit vote continues to ripple through financial markets which  are still trying to find their feet.
Japan’s Nikkei is higher despite a strong Yen after PM Abe said that finance minister Aso has been instructed to take necessary steps in FX markets (prevent Yen getting too strong? 100 USD/JPY floor?) while China is higher as the PBOC fixed the Renminbi lower in response to USD strength; a product of safe haven seeking and Brexit-inspired GBP weakness. Australia’s ASX is underperforming on account of the stronger USD hindering the commodities space, oil back down at $48 and financial being held back by contagion from Brexit.
US bourses understandably failed to hold up around their YTD highs after the UK voted to leave the EU. Materials (i.e. risk) stocks and financials led declines there, as they did back in Britain with investors heading for safe havens. Note the head of the US house panel that oversees trade deals is keen to open dialogue with the UK, while the EU’s Juncker is equally keen to start a different conversation.
Crude prices still under pressure, even if up off Friday’s lows, as global growth concerns surface following the Brexit vote to eclipse what should’ve been a price-positive Baker Hughes Rig Count. Gold potentially set for another leg higher today on still-buoyant safe haven demand and with rising support over the weekend maintaining the uptrend. Note also the USD Basket trading near 2016 falling highs which should provide additional support to commodities, though risk sentiment likely to trump that.
In focus today will be the continued fallout from Friday’s Brexit vote and the uncertainty that has resulted from an economic, financial and political sense. And the latter looks like proving the biggest near-term hurdle given the weekend’s party in-fighting (on both sides) and current leadership vacuum.
In terms of data, watch out for US PMI Services for June seen improving slightly while the US Dallas Fed may improve on its negative read.  While data and speakers are rather limited today, comments from PBOC Governor Zhou are sure to garner attention after the European close along with any other world leaders and central bankers in light of the Brexit vote.

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