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China Is Forcing Tourists to Install Text-Stealing Malware at its Border

Published: 09:14 09 Jul 2019 BST

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Comments of the Day

09 July 2019

 

 

Video commentary for July 8th 2019

 

 

Eoin Treacy's view

A link to today's video is posted in the Subscriber;s Area. 

Some of the topics discussed include: Deutsche Bank and Greece downside key reversals, S&P500 pauses, China weak  Dollar firm,  

 

 

Downgrading Global Equities to Underweight

Thanks to a subscriber for this report from Morgan Stanley which may be of interest. Here is a section:

 

 

Eoin Treacy's view

A link to the full report is posted in the Subscriber's Area. 

The argument at this stage in the market cycle is less about valuation and more about the fear of missing out. If bond yields are compressing because of the anticipation of massive monetary easing that bond-equity spread will be a significant tailwind for equities on a breakout scenario.

 

 

Erdogan Draws the Line on Rates After Shock Central Bank Ouster

This article by Firat Kozok and Cagan Koc for Bloomberg may of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

Hours after unexpectedly forcing out the central bank’s governor, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan made clear that he expects both the successor and the rest of the establishment to toe the government’s line on monetary policy.

The decision to dismiss Murat Cetinkaya, whose four-year term was due to end in 2020, was announced in the early hours on Saturday following a pause in interest rates that lasted for over nine months. Deputy Governor Murat Uysal was named as a replacement. Investors weren’t impressed -- the lira slid more than 3% in early Asian trading before paring losses.

During a closed meeting after the decree came out, Erdogan told lawmakers from his ruling party that politicians and bureaucrats all need to get behind his conviction that higher interest rates cause inflation, according to an official who was present. He also threatened consequences for anyone who defies the government’s economic policies, the official said.

Erdogan’s office of communication didn’t respond to calls and text messages seeking comment. “By abruptly dismissing Cetinkaya, Erdogan reminded everyone who is in charge of monetary policy,” said Piotr Matys, a London-based strategist at Rabobank.

 

Eoin Treacy's view

Governance is everything and when you have an autocrat in power who is resorting to progressively more desperate measures to hold onto power there is a problem. Losing the re-run election for mayor of Istanbul, a couple of weeks ago, was a wake-up call for Erdogan. That’s a position he once held himself and retaining control of the largest city is essential if he wants to hold onto power. That is probably what precipitated the ouster of the central bank chief.

 

 

New Democracy Meets Old Greek Problems After Mitsotakis Win

This article by Sotiris Nikas for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

“The weight of responsibility is heavy,” Mitsotakis said in his victory speech in Athens Sunday night. “I assume the burden with complete awareness of the situation the country is in.” Greece’s economy expanded 1.9% in 2018 and is on track for about 2% growth this year. Since Mitsotakis’s victory in the May 26 European Parliament elections, the Athens Stock Exchange general index has risen more than 20%, while yields on 10-year bonds have fallen to record lows. Greece is planning a new bond sale by the end of the month to capitalize on that momentum to secure sustainable access to financial markets that was lost in 2010

 

Eoin Treacy's view

Greece has exited its assistance program and has benefitted from some debt forgiveness. The rationalisation of the economy remains underway and significant asset sales have occurred so the new administration does have some leeway in which to move. Perhaps the most important development is the replacement of a leftwing populist with the market friendly administration. That could be particularly beneficial in a recovery scenario.

 

 

China Is Forcing Tourists to Install Text-Stealing Malware at its Border

This article from vice.com maybe of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

Together with the Guardian and the New York Times, the reporting team commissioned several technical analyses of the app. Penetration testing firm Cure53 on behalf of the Open Technology Fund, researchers at Citizen Lab from the University of Toronto, and researchers from the Ruhr University Bochum as well as the Guardian itself all provided insights about BXAQ. The app's code also includes names such as "CellHunter" and "MobileHunter."

Once installed on an Android phone, by "side-loading" its installation and requesting certain permissions rather than downloading it from the Google Play Store, BXAQ collects all of the phone's calendar entries, phone contacts, call logs, and text messages and uploads them to a server, according to expert analysis. The malware also scans the phone to see which apps are installed, and extracts the subject’s usernames for some installed apps. (Update: after the publication of this piece, multiple antivirus firms updated their products to flag the app as malware).

 

Eoin Treacy's view

Xinjiang is one of China’s buffer states which separates the heartland from its neighbours. It is also an energy producer and bread basket so China has additional reasons to quell even a whiff of separatist sentiment. The extend of surveillance and re-education programs (incarceration) is unparalleled in modern history and is a testament to just how overtly authoritarian the administration is.

 

 

Eoin's personal portfolio from May 15th

 

 

Eoin Treacy's view

Details of this trade are posted in the Subscriber's Area. 

 

 

2019: The 50th year of The Chart Seminar

 

 

Eoin Treacy's view

There will be a memorial concert for David at the Royal Festival Hall on October 5th. It looks like we will have a room at the Royal Festival Hall for an hour before the concert for a memorial. Wine and canapes will be served. Afterward we will retire to the Benefactor's Lounge where Tim Walker, Chairman of the LPO will dedicate the concert in David's memory. The concert will be from 7:30 to 10pm. If anyone would like to attend the concert in addition to the memorial there will be a box to tick on the booking form which I will provide as soon as I have it.   

Since this is the 50th year of The Chart Seminar we will be conducting the event on October 3rd and 4th to coincide with the memorial on the Saturday.

In the meantime, if you have any questions, would like to attend, or have a suggestion for another venue please feel to reach out to Sarah at sarah@fullertreacymoney.com.  

The full rate for The Chart Seminar is £1799 + VAT. (Please note US, Australian and Asian delegates, as non-EU residents are not liable for VAT). Annual subscribers are offered a discounted rate of £850. Anyone booking more than one place can also avail of the £850 rate for the second and subsequent delegates.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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