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Betting Against The Gods Is Now Impossible

Published: 09:28 08 Jul 2019 BST

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Comments of the Day

06 July 2019

 

 

Video commentary for July 5th 2019

 

 

Eoin Treacy's view

A link to this week's Big Picture Long-Term video is posted in the Subscriber's Area. 

 

 

Guide to the Markets Q3 2019

Thanks to a subscriber for this chartbook from JPMorgan which may be of interest to subscribers. Here is an important graphic.

 

Eoin Treacy's view

A link to the full report is posted in the Subscriber's Area. 

2018 saw significant multiple compression. The rebound in the first quarter unwound the entire decline but also unwound much of the multiple compression. Earnings guidance for the upcoming reporting season is a lot weaker than over the last few years and is the basis for the opinion that we are about to see an earnings recession.

 

 

Betting Against The Gods Is Now Impossible

Thanks to a subscriber for this report from GaveKal which may be of interest. Here is a section:

 

 

Eoin Treacy's view

 A link to the full report is posted in the Subscriber's Area. 

Every mania has a contradiction at its centre. In the 1980s, it was the Imperial Palace in Tokyo really was worth more than the entire state of California. In the 1990s it was earnings don’t matter. In 2000s it was CDS could absolve everyone of default risk. In this decade it is that no one loses money from negative yields.

 

 

Iron Ore's "Disconnected From Fundamentals" After Huge Rally

This article by Krystal Chia for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section: 

Iron ore has skyrocketed this year, hitting the highest level in more than five years, after a dam disaster at Brazil’s Vale SA and bad weather in Australia curtailed shipments just as Chinese demand expanded. The steelmaking material made another dash higher in recent weeks after Australian miner Rio Tinto Group cut output guidance again following operational problems. The ascent has spurred concerns the advance may prove to be unsustainable.

“Supply is looking pretty decent, with the exception of Rio,” Hedborg said. Exports from Australia in June should be strong as some miners ramp up in the last month of their financial year, he said. In Brazil, Vale has also restarted its Brucutu mine, a major operation that was suspended after the dam
collapse.

 

Eoin Treacy's view

The iron-ore price remains in a steep uptrend and exhibits an increasingly wide overextension relative to the trend mean. The first clear downward dynamic is likely to signal a peak of at least near-term significance and the beginning of a reversion towards the mean.

 

 

Eoin's personal portfolio from May 15th

 

 

Eoin Treacy's view

Details of this trade are posted in the Subscriber's Area. 

 

 

2019: The 50th year of The Chart Seminar

 

 

Eoin Treacy's view

There will be a memorial concert for David at the Royal Festival Hall on October 5th. It looks like we will have a room at the Royal Festival Hall for an hour before the concert for a memorial. Wine and canapes will be served. Afterward we will retire to the Benefactor's Lounge where Tim Walker, Chairman of the LPO will dedicate the concert in David's memory. The concert will be from 7:30 to 10pm. If anyone would like to attend the concert in addition to the memorial there will be a box to tick on the booking form which I will provide as soon as I have it.   

Since this is the 50th year of The Chart Seminar we will be conducting the event on October 3rd and 4th to coincide with the memorial on the Saturday.

In the meantime, if you have any questions, would like to attend, or have a suggestion for another venue please feel to reach out to Sarah at sarah@fullertreacymoney.com.  

The full rate for The Chart Seminar is £1799 + VAT. (Please note US, Australian and Asian delegates, as non-EU residents are not liable for VAT). Annual subscribers are offered a discounted rate of £850. Anyone booking more than one place can also avail of the £850 rate for the second and subsequent delegates.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Oriole Resources outlines 2023 achievements and future exploration plans

Oriole Resources PLC (AIM:ORR) CEO Tim Livesey and chief financial officer Bob Smeeton join Proactive's Stephen Gunnion with details of the company's 2023 financial and operational performance. Livesey highlighted successful exploration programs in Cameroon, at the Bibemi and Mbe projects,...

13 minutes ago