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Wheat Futures Climb Most Since August as Texas Ratings Decline

Wheat Futures Climb Most Since August as Texas Ratings Decline

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13 March 2019

 

 

Video Commentary for March 12th 2019

 

 

Eoin Treacy's view

A link to today's video commentary is posted in the Subscriber's Area. 

Some of the topics discussed include: Stock markets steady, Pound extremely volatile as Theresa May's deal is voted down again, China pauses, US inflation below forecasts compresses yields and supports gold, oil pauses, wheat rebounds, lumber weak as trading margins increase.

 

 

The Sharing Economy Was Always a Scam

This article by Susie Cagle for Medium.com may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

In some instances, the sharing economy appeared to inflame the very problems it purported to solve. The supposed activation of underutilized resources actually led to more, if slightly different, patterns of resource consumption. A number of studies have shown that the ease and subsidized low cost of Uber and Lyft rides are increasing traffic in cities and apparently pulls passengers away from an actual form of sharing: public transportation. Students at UCLA are reportedly taking roughly 11,000 rides each week that never even leave campus. In putting more cars on the road, ride-hail companies have encouraged would-be drivers to consume more by buying cars with subprime loans or renting directly from the platforms themselves.

Alongside making it easy to rent out spare rooms, vacation rental platforms encouraged speculative real estate investment. Whole homes and apartment buildings are taken off the rental market to act as hotels, further squeezing housing markets in already unaffordable cities.

Early sharing champions were ultimately correct about technology enabling a shift away from an ownership society, but what came next wasn’t sharing. The rise of streaming services, subscription systems, and short-term rentals eclipsed the promise of nonmonetary resource sharing. The power and control wasn’t decentralized; it was even more concentrated in the hands of large and valuable platforms.

Why go through the trouble of swapping your own DVDs for a copy of Friends With Benefits, after all, when you can stream it through Amazon Prime Video for $2.99? The idea of paying for temporary access to albums rather than outright owning them may have been galling at first, but we’re increasingly comfortable with renting all our music, along with our software, and our books. Downloading and sharing the materials that live on these streamed resources is impossible, illegal, or both.

 

Eoin Treacy's view

The evolution of the subscription business model has helped to streamline balance sheets and has essentially turned the lumpy cashflows of technology companies into the equivalent of consumer staples. That is one of the primary reasons they have continued to be able to command such high valuations.

 

 

Oil 2019: Analysis and forecast to 2024

This summary report from IEA may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

The United States leads global supply growth The United States continues to dominate supply growth in the medium term. Following the unprecedented expansion seen in 2018, when total liquids production increased by a record 2.2 million barrels per day (mb/d), the United States will account for 70% of the increase in global production capacity until 2024, adding a total of 4 mb/d.

 

Important contributions will also come from other non-OPEC countries, including Brazil, Canada, a resurgent Norway, and newcomer Guyana, which together add another 2.6 mb/d in the next five years. In total, non-OPEC production is set to increase by 6.1 mb/d through to 2024.

 

Among OPEC countries, only Iraq and the United Arab Emirates have significant plans to increase capacity. These gains have to offset steep losses from Iran and Venezuela, which are subject to sanctions and political or economic turmoil. As a result, OPEC’s effective production capacity falls by 0.4 mb/d by 2024.

The United States is also turning into a major player in the global oil trade
As a result of its strong oil production growth, the United States will become a net oil exporter in 2021, as its crude and products exports exceed its imports. Towards the end of forecast, US gross exports will reach 9 mb/d, overtaking Russia and catching up on Saudi Arabia. The transformation of the United States into a major exporter is another consequence of its shale revolution.

Greater US exports to global markets strengthen oil security around the world. Buyers of crude oil, particularly in Asia, where demand is growing fastest, have a wider choice of suppliers. This gives them more operational and trading flexibility, reducing their reliance on traditional, long term supply contracts.

Global trade is not simply a story for the United States. The second-largest increase in crude exports comes from Brazil, which ships an extra 0.8 mb/d of oil by 2024. Following Brazil, Norway is enjoying a renaissance and will overtake Kazakhstan and Kuwait in the next five years a remarkable achievement.

 

Eoin Treacy's view

A link to the full report is posted in the Subscriber's Area. 

“Unconventional oil and gas are gamechangers for the energy sector” has been a refrain at this service for more than a decade and the full extent of that change is now becoming clear. When we first talked about the USA becoming energy independent it sounded to many like a fanciful view but the country is already an exporter and will reverse decades of imports in the coming couple of years.

 

 

Wheat Futures Climb Most Since August as Texas Ratings Decline

This note by Michael Hirtzer for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers.

May wheat futures up as much as 4.4% to $4.47 1/2 a bushel in Chicago.
Intraday advance is biggest since Aug. 2
Prices are rebounding from May contract record low reached Monday
NOTE: Winter-wheat conditions in Texas drop, USDA data showed Monday
Texas good/excellent rating lowered to 28% from 36%
Futures also climb amid short covering, Terry Reilly, senior commodity analyst for grain and oilseeds for Futures International in Chicago, says by telephone

 

Eoin Treacy's view

There was also news today that Ukraine’s wheat crop is coming in ahead of expectations so there is no global shortage of the commodity. Nevertheless, there is clear evidence of a short-term oversold condition and today’s upward dynamic is the first positive news for wheat in months. Potential for some additional short covering has certainly improved.

 

 

Eoin's personal portfolio: precious metal long initiated March 8th

 

 

Eoin Treacy's view

Details of this trade are posted in the Subscriber's Area. 

 

 

2019: The 50th year of The Chart Seminar

 

 

Eoin Treacy's view

I have had word from the inestimable Mrs. Fuller that the London Philharmonic Orchestra are planning a memorial concert on October 5th at the Royal Festival Hall. It is envisaged that there will be drinks and canapes afterwards. Since this is the 50th year of The Chart Seminar we will be conducting the event on October 3rd and 4th.

I also plan on holding a New York event, potentially in June, and am in discussions with a partner in how best to organise it.

In the meantime, if you have any questions, would like to attend, or have a suggestion for another venue please feel to reach out to Sarah at [email protected].  

The full rate for The Chart Seminar is £1799 + VAT. (Please note US, Australian and Asian delegates, as non-EU residents are not liable for VAT). Subscribers are offered a discounted rate of £850. Anyone booking more than one place can also avail of the £850 rate for the second and subsequent delegates.

 

 

 

 

 

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