Proactive Investors - Run By Investors For Investors

The Brexit Declaration on Future Ties: A Guide to What It Says

The Brexit Declaration on Future Ties: A Guide to What It Says

Your free daily email from Fuller Treacy Money

Comments of the Day

23 November 2018



Video commentary for November 22nd 2018



Eoin Treacy's view

A link to today's video commentary is posted in the Subscriber's Area. 

Some of the topics discussed include: Happy Thanksgiving, central bank balance sheet contraction at least pauses, emerging markets stabilising, gold steady, oil still trending lower, bargain hunters starting to appear. 



The Brexit Declaration on Future Ties: A Guide to What It Says

There is a great deal of commentary at the moment about Brexit so let’s look at what has been proposed in the draft agreement. Here is a section:

The declaration opens up the prospect of adopting technological solutions to facilitate "the ease of legitimate trade" - including across the Irish border - calling for the
use of "all available facilitative arrangements and technologies".

"Facilitative arrangements and technologies will be considered in developing any alternative arrangements for ensuring the absence of a hard border on the island of Ireland on a permanent footing," it says.

It envisages "a spectrum of different outcomes" in terms of the practical implementation of checks and controls on  movements across borders.

Financial services
The declaration calls on both sides to start assessing  one another's regulatory frameworks as soon as possible after Brexit, with a view to being able to declare them "equivalent" before the end of June 2020.

Freedom of movement
The principle of freedom of movement of people between  the EU and the UK will no longer apply. The two sides will aim to provide through their domestic laws for visa-free travel for
"short-term visits".

They will also consider future conditions for entry and stay for purposes such as research, study, training and youth exchanges.


Eoin Treacy's view

The title of an article by Matt Chorley for The Times “It is time to shoot the Brexit unicorns” reflects the UK government’s attempts to convince ideological purists that this is the only option available to them.

It’s only a matter of time before someone starts quoting the Rolling Stones. You can't always get what you want

You can't always get what you want
You can't always get what you want
But if you try sometimes you just might find
You just might find
You get what you need, oh yeah



Beijing to Judge Every Resident Based on Behavior by End of 2020

Thanks to a subscriber for this article from Bloomberg news which may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

China’s plan to judge each of its 1.3 billion people based on their social behavior is moving a step closer to reality, with Beijing set to adopt a lifelong points program by 2021 that assigns personalized ratings for each resident.

The capital city will pool data from several departments to reward and punish some 22 million citizens based on their actions and reputations by the end of 2020, according to a plan posted on the Beijing municipal government’s website on Monday. Those with better so-called social credit will get “green channel” benefits while those who violate laws will find life more difficult.

The Beijing project will improve blacklist systems so that those deemed untrustworthy will be “unable to move even a single step,” according to the government’s plan. Xinhua reported on the proposal Tuesday, while the report posted on the municipal government’s website is dated July 18.


Eoin Treacy's view

Anyone who has ever attempted to teach anything to anyone will be familiar with the experience that what you think of as important may not gel with what your presumed student thinks. As a teacher you never really know if you are getting your point across.

I was thinking about that while in Singapore last month. The country has had unparalleled success in turning a backwater into a private banking powerhouse through a commitment to improving standards of governance and rule of law. However, Singapore has also been the subject of much criticism for the strict social control policies they pursued on the way to prosperity. China has long regarded Singapore as a case study so what did they learn?



Email of the day on central bank balances sheets

On the Morgan Stanley research document, you posted on Monday, there was "the most important chart in the world" as you describe it (QE globally). The "6-month rate of change" scale on LHS caught my attention. Recently, this QE tightening "rate of change" has moved upwards. Is this an early sign that CBs are starting to shy away from their QE tightening? If so, this is bullish for an equity market discounting future tightening. Maybe the tea leaves are not clear, but they must be monitored.


Eoin Treacy's view

Thanks for this email which as you highlight raises the very important question of whether central banks have had enough of tightening after taking $1.5 trillion out of circulation since March.



Long-term themes review October 29th 2018



Eoin Treacy's view

FullerTreacyMoney has a very varied group of people as subscribers. Some of you like to receive our views in written form, while others prefer the first-person experience of listening to the audio or watching daily videos.

The Big Picture Long-Term video, posted every Friday, is aimed squarely at anyone who does not have the time to read the daily commentary but wishes to gain some perspective on what we think the long-term outlook holds. However, I think it is also important to have a clear written record for where we lie in terms of the long-term themes we have identified, particularly as short-term market machinations influence perceptions.

Let me first set up the background; I believe we are in a secular bull market that will not peak for at least another decade and potentially twice that. However, it also worth considering that secular bull markets are occasionally punctuated by recessions and medium-term corrections which generally represent buying opportunities.

2018 has represented a loss of uptrend consistency for the S&P500 following a particularly impressive and persistent advance in 2016 and 2017. Many people are therefore asking whether this is a medium-term correction or a top. There is perhaps no more important question so let’s just focus on that for the moment.


The information provided on this website ( is for the purposes of information only.  This website and its content is not and should not be considered or deemed to be an offer of or invitation to engage in any investment activity.  Nothing FT Money does and nothing on this website is intended to operate or be construed as the giving of advice or the making of a recommendation by FT Money to any investor or prospective investor.

FT Money and any other group or associated company of it is not authorised or regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority in the UK or any other regulatory body in any other jurisdiction. 

By means of your login to our service you are deemed to thereby accept our current Terms of Business including this notice,

Except for permission to download a single copy for personal use, the research published by FT Money may not be reproduced, distributed or published in whole or in part by any recipient for any purpose, without the prior express consent of FT Money.

Information featured on the website is based upon information and data provided by FT Money and remains the intellectual property of FT Money.  Some of the information may also be provided by third parties and whilst FT Money will seek to ensure that information featured the website is updated on a regular basis, FT Money does not accept any responsibility for, and disclaims any and all liability for, any such information (including the accuracy of such information) or views or opinions expressed on the website.

Any person considering an investment opportunity as a result of data presented on the website should give full regard to all the content of the website, and should perform their own due diligence and obtain advice from suitably qualified professional advisers before investing.  Prospective investors are also encouraged and recommended to take their own independent legal and taxation advice together with any other advice that they may consider necessary to consider the benefits and risks attached to any investment opportunity.

No representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is or will be made or given by FT Money  (including its executives, employees, agents, contractors and advisors) in relation to the accuracy or completeness of the contents of the website, save that any such liability is not excluded in respect of fraudulent misrepresentation.

© Proactive Investors 2019

Proactive Investors Limited, trading as “Proactiveinvestors United Kingdom”, is Authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.
Registered in England with Company Registration number 05639690. Group VAT registration number 872070825 FCA Registration number 559082. You can contact us here.

Market Indices, Commodities and Regulatory News Headlines copyright © Morningstar. Data delayed 15 minutes unless otherwise indicated. Terms of use