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WPM acquires cobalt stream

WPM acquires cobalt stream

Video commentary for June 12th 2018

Eoin Treacy's view
A link to today's video is posted in the Subscriber's Area.

Some of the topics discussed include: p&f figure chart reading for cobalt, oil and google, China steadies, Nasdaq testing its highs, industrial metals steady, trucking companies breaking out, food prices firming, while oil pauses below $80, all pointing to rising industrion pressures.

Musings From The Oil Patch June 12th 2018
Thanks to a subscriber for this report edition of Allen Brooks’ ever interesting report for PPHB. Here is a fascinating section on energy efficiency statistics over the last 50 years:

Eoin Treacy's view
A link to the full report and a section from it are posted in the Subscriber's Area.

There is no doubt that battery efficiency is improving and new solar innovation is being revealed on almost a weekly basis. There are laudable reasons for seeking to reduce carbon and nitrogen oxide emissions in our cities all of us can support. However, the question many people are worried about is whether this is merely transferring a problem from cities to less populated areas.

WPM acquires cobalt stream
Thanks to a subscriber for this report from Credit Suisse which may be of interest. Here is a section:

Eoin Treacy's view
A link to the full report and section from it is posted in the Subscriber's Area.

Generally speaking streaming companies provide funding for struggling mines when prices are low. By historical standards cobalt prices are not low. Of course, if accepts the near mania of bullish prognostications, then cobalt is cheap.

Shadow Lending Slump Shows Deleveraging Picking Up
This note from Fielding Chen at Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

Looking at the details, the composition of lending continued to shift toward on-balance-sheet lending from off-balance sheet:

New bank loans denominated in yuan totaled 1.14 trillion, up slightly from 1.1 trillion in April. The 41.3 billion yuan rise was slightly below the average increase of 98.1 billion yuan recorded in the same month over the past five years.

The stock of shadow bank lending -- entrusted loans, trust loans, and back acceptances -- dropped across the board. The total fell 421.5 billion yuan, the steepest monthly drop in data available back to 2016.

Net financing of corporate bonds contracted by 43.4 billion yuan, after an increase of 377.6 billion yuan in April. Rising defaults have hit sentiment in the bond market. Equity financing was more stable, falling moderately to 43.8 billion yuan from 53.3 billion yuan.

Recent policy moves have been tilted toward support for bank lending. In April, the PBOC cut the reserve requirement ratio for banks. In June, it broadened the types of collateral that could be used against central bank loans.

Eoin Treacy's view
The Fed is raising interest rates and reducing the size of its balance sheet, the ECB is approaching the end of QE while the Bank of Japan is now yet ready for that step. Against that background the PBoC is engaged in an attempt to bring the shadow banking system out of the shadows.Continues in the Subscriber's Area.

Truckers Protest High Gas Prices in Spotty Strikes Across China
This article by Te-Ping Chen for the Wall Street Journal may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:
While trucker protests in China have occurred in the past amid complaints of road tolls, fuel prices and excessive fees, Geoff Crothall, spokesman for the labor monitoring group, said he couldn’t recall trucker protests of a similar scale. He estimated thousands of truckers participated.

As they have the world over, gas prices have risen in China this year, by 8.6%, according to data from the Ministry of Commerce. Taxes and other fees generally make gas more expensive in China than the U.S., and on top of that the government sets the prices, lagging changes in international oil markets by 10 days or more.

China’s National Development and Reform Commission, which sets those prices, announced Friday that it would cut the retail price of gasoline and diesel by 130 yuan ($20.29) per ton for gasoline and 125 yuan per ton for diesel. The new prices, effective this past Saturday, reflect a recent retreat in global oil prices. In the central province of Anhui, a transportation hub where protests occurred, gasoline now costs $3.99 a gallon, and diesel $4.04 a gallon.

Rising fuel costs have elsewhere prompted worker frustrations to spill over, most notably in Brazil, where protesters blocked highways and halted shipments of food, fuel and medicine before the government called in the military to help end the strike. Other trucker protests have also recently broken out in Iran.

Eoin Treacy's view
Trucking has been all over the news recently with strikes in China and Brazil over high fuel prices and low pay while the USA is in dire need of 50,000 drivers.  These trends point to the fact the USA is close to full employment so attracting workers is becoming an issue while all three countries share upward pressure on wages. Higher shipping rates are inflationary because it will put pressure on companies to cover the increasing costs by raising prices for the end customer. Continues in the Subscriber's Area.

Long-term themes review May 16th 2018

Eoin Treacy's view
FullerTreacyMoney has a very varied group of people as subscribers. Some of you like to receive our views in written form, while others prefer the first-person experience of listening to the audio or watching daily videos.

The Big Picture Long-Term video, posted every Friday, is aimed squarely at anyone who does not have the time to read the daily commentary but wishes to gain some perspective on what we think the long-term outlook holds. However, I think it is also important to have a clear written record for where we lie in terms of the long-term themes we have identified, particularly as short-term market machinations influence perceptions.

Here is a summary of my view at present - continues in the Subscriber's Area.

The 49th year of The Chart Seminar

Eoin Treacy's view
If you have an interest in attending an online Chart Seminar please contact Sarah and we will arrange times based on the time zones of those who wish to attend. I envisage holding our first online seminar in late May or early June.

There will be another Seminar in London in November and I am in initial discussions with a potential partner about organising a New York Seminar.

If you would like to attend or have a suggestion for another venue please feel to reach out to Sarah at [email protected] 

The full rate for The Chart Seminar is £1799 + VAT. (Please note US, Australian and Asian delegates, as non EU residents are not liable for VAT). Subscribers are offered a discounted rate of £850. Anyone booking more than one place can also avail of the £850 rate for the second and subsequent delegates.

Eoin's personal portfolio April 11th 2018

Eoin Treacy's view
One of the requests subscribers have asked for most over the last few years has been to have an easy way to find what positions I have open at any given time. Therefore, I repost this section on a daily basis and the title will always include the date of my most recent trade.

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