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Italy Debt Write-Off Talk Weighs on Bonds as Yields Rise

Italy Debt Write-Off Talk Weighs on Bonds as Yields Rise

Video commentary for May 16th 2018

Eoin Treacy's view

A link to today's video is posted in the Subscriber's Area.

Long-term themes review May 16th 2018

Eoin Treacy's view
FullerTreacyMoney has a very varied group of people as subscribers. Some of you like to receive our views in written form, while others prefer the first-person experience of listening to the audio or watching daily videos.

The Big Picture Long-Term video, posted every Friday, is aimed squarely at anyone who does not have the time to read the daily commentary but wishes to gain some perspective on what we think the long-term outlook holds. However, I think it is also important to have a clear written record for where we lie in terms of the long-term themes we have identified, particularly as short-term market machinations influence perceptions.

Here is a summary of my view at present - continues in the Subscriber's Area.

The Coming Scramble for Middle Distillates
Thanks to a subscriber for this report from Morgan Stanley which may be of interest - a link to the full report is posted in the Subscriber's Area.

Eoin Treacy's view

The futures curves for crude oil, gasoline, gasoil and heating oil are all in backwardation which confirms there is a supply shortage. OPEC and Russia’s curtailment of supply coupled with the re-imposition of sanctions on Iran and Venezuela’s implosion at certainly part of the story. The surge in supply from unconventional supplies is also pulling pressure on refineries because of the differing grades from what they are set up to receive.

Italy Debt Write-Off Talk Weighs on Bonds as Yields Rise
This note from Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section:

Confirmation that Italy’s putative government is talking about asking the European Central Bank for debt forgiveness is weighing on the nation’s debt. The extra yield investors demand to hold 10-year Italian government bonds instead of German bunds, Europe’s benchmark, widened to the most since January. League lawmaker Armando Siri told La7 television that they are discussing a 250 billion-euro ($300 billion) write-off, confirming an earlier report by the Huffington Post.

Eoin Treacy's view
Greece has now successfully pushed the maturity of its massive debt load out decades and that is an attractive proposition for other countries. Considering how much public debt Italy has something has to be done to get finances under control and clearly the population has had enough of belt tightening.

The 49th year of The Chart Seminar

Eoin Treacy's view
If you have an interest in attending an online Chart Seminar please contact Sarah and we will arrange times based on the time zones of those who wish to attend. I envisage holding our first online seminar in late May or early June.

There will be another Seminar in London in November and I am in initial discussions with a potential partner about organising a New York Seminar.
If you would like to attend or have a suggestion for another venue please feel to reach out to Sarah at [email protected] 

The full rate for The Chart Seminar is £1799 + VAT. (Please note US, Australian and Asian delegates, as non EU residents are not liable for VAT). Subscribers are offered a discounted rate of £850. Anyone booking more than one place can also avail of the £850 rate for the second and subsequent delegates.

Eoin's personal portfolio April 11th 2018

Eoin Treacy's view
One of the requests subscribers have asked for most over the last few years has been to have an easy way to find what positions I have open at any given time. Therefore, I repost this section on a daily basis and the title will always include the date of my most recent trade.


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